By all accounts, Minnesota Vikings WR Jordan Addison had an excellent rookie season. Yet, it feels like it should’ve been even better. Is there a buying opportunity for fantasy football managers in early Best Ball drafts?
Jordan Addison’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
Last year, I was quite high on Addison from a redraft perspective. Analyzing Addison’s performance is quite interesting. From a pure talent standpoint, he clearly belongs.
Addison proved capable of having massive spike weeks, which is essential in Best Ball. And for an undersized guy at 5’11”, 173 pounds, he was able to win consistently on the outside. That bodes extremely well for his continued progression.
As a rookie, despite only seeing an 18.1% target share, Addison averaged a very respectable 13.0 fantasy points per game. He finished as the overall WR30. However, I do think Addison managers got a raw deal last season with Kirk Cousins going down.
Some may point to Addison playing without Justin Jefferson for much of the season as a benefit. That likely would have resulted in him seeing a larger target share had Cousins stayed healthy. However, losing Cousins was far more impactful than playing without Jefferson. Addison as the WR2 with Cousins healthy is way better than Addison as the WR1 with a medley of backups and third-stringers under center.
In eight games with Cousins, Addison averaged 15.8 fantasy points per game. For context, 16.0 points per game is roughly the threshold for WR1 production. In nine games with quarterbacks not named Kirk Cousins, notably Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens, and Jaren Hall, Addison averaged 10.5 fantasy ppg, making him mostly unstartable.
Addison is now entering his sophomore season — a year where we typically see talented receivers take a big leap forward. For Addison, his rookie season suggests big things are coming.
Since 2011, there have been 26 rookie receivers to record 900+ yards. Three of the 2023 class did it, giving us 23 receivers who we’ve seen play beyond their rookie year.
Of those 23 players, I would classify three of them as busts. That means 87% of them panned out. Of those remaining 20, more than half were or are viewed as clear WR1s in fantasy — leaving Addison in some fantastic company.
Addison caught 70 passes for 911 yards and a whopping 10 touchdowns in 2023. And remember, he also played behind K.J. Osborn for half the season. Then, once he overtook Osborn, he lost Cousins. Despite all those obstacles, Addison was able to provide WR3 value for fantasy managers.
Should You Draft Addison in 2024 Best Ball Leagues?
As someone who rostered Addison on multiple teams last season, I certainly wish we could’ve seen a full rookie year with Cousins on the field. But since we can’t change the past, hopefully, we can at least benefit from it in the future.
It looks like we’re getting a bit of a discount on Addison in early Best Ball drafts. At bare minimum, it’s fair to say Addison would be more expensive had the second half of his rookie season looked more like the first half.
Somehow, Addison’s ADP is currently lower than where he finished last season. I understand there are a lot of talented and productive wide receivers, but Addison is 22 years old and highly unlikely to be worse this year than he was last year.
We can surmise the main reason for trepidation from fantasy managers is the Vikings’ uncertain quarterback situation. The reports linking Cousins to the Atlanta Falcons were strong enough to cause fantasy managers to pause. Sure enough, Cousins signed with the Falcons.
My initial thoughts were the Vikings would be able to figure it out at quarterback. Looking at the QB landscape now, it’s very worrisome.
Justin Fields or a first-round rookie would still be an upgrade on the Vikings’ non-Cousins QBs from last season. But at this point, whoever they end up with is going to be a significant downgrade from Cousins himself.
KEEP READING: Best Ball Fantasy WR Rankings 2024
Addison’s Best Ball ADP is going to drop now that Cousins is gone. It will likely bottom out before the Vikings sign or draft a QB, as the presumption is going to be worst-case scenario.
Based on Addison’s talent and rookie year production, he should be someone fantasy managers want to aggressively target. But talent isn’t everything. The situation is suddenly extremely problematic.
There is still a price at which fantasy managers should be willing to take a shot a talented young player. However, I don’t see Addison as having the same level of upside he would’ve had if Cousins returned.