Is Jonnu Smith or Hunter Henry the better TE for Patriots offense?

The New England Patriots have been uncharacteristically big spenders so far this NFL offseason. Interestingly, the Patriots have placed a heavy focus on the tight end position, signing both Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry to sizable deals, making them the two highest-paid tight ends in the NFL behind George Kittle and Travis Kelce. The question is, can Henry and Smith live up to their new contracts?

Henry has bounced back after missing 2018

Of the two tight ends the Patriots have signed this offseason, Hunter Henry has been the more productive player in recent years. After missing the entire 2018 regular season with a torn ACL, he rebounded during the next two seasons, totaling 652 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2019 and 613 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2020.

Those numbers aren’t on the same level as those produced by the NFL’s best tight ends, such as Travis Kelce or George Kittle. On the other hand, they rank reasonably well in comparison to most TEs.

Despite solid box score statistics, Henry’s advanced metrics were mediocre

Unlike his traditional statistics, the advanced metrics are less optimistic regarding Henry’s play in recent seasons. As evidence, let’s use the Offensive Value Metric (OVM), a grading system created by the (Bx) Movement to measure how much value a player provided to their offense.

In 2019 and 2020, Henry earned OVM grades of 34.76 and 31.97, respectively. Those aren’t awful grades for a tight end. However, they ranked around the middle of the pack for the position in both seasons, indicating that Henry was only an average contributor to the Los Angeles Chargers offense. It’s easy to see why diving into the metrics that go into his grades, which you can find in the chart below.

As with Henry’s overall grades, none of these statistics are terrible. In fact, his catch percentage in 2019 ranked quite highly. In contrast, the rest of his advanced metrics ranged from average to slightly below-average.

Jonnu Smith has improved dramatically since the arrival of Ryan Tannehill

Like Hunter Henry, Smith’s best seasons in the NFL have come in the last two years, coinciding with the arrival of quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Smith totaled 439 yards and 3 touchdowns through the air in 2019, then 448 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2020. Those numbers aren’t quite as impressive as Henry’s, but they are still solid statistics for a tight end. That is especially true since Smith played in one of the most run-focused schemes in the NFL.

Jonnu Smith’s OVM grade was incredible in 2019 but fell off in 2020

While Henry and Smith’s traditional statistics from 2019 and 2020 are quite similar, Smith’s advanced metrics during the 2019 season were staggering. His OVM grade of 44.32 made him the highest-graded player in the NFL at any position. In fact, that is the highest overall grade earned by a player in the last five seasons.

With a grade like that, it isn’t surprising that Smith excelled on every advanced statistic in 2019. He caught 72.37% of his targets, second in the NFL among all qualifying tight ends, and averaged 3.7 yards of separation, which was tied for third. On top of that, he averaged 8.4 yards after the catch, again ranking third among tight ends. Even more impressive, that average was 3.8 yards higher than expected according to the NFL’s calculations, the highest differential at his position.

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Ranking highly in one of those categories is already an achievement — ranking highly in all of them is how you end up with the highest OVM grade on record.

Unfortunately, despite his unprecedented metrics in 2019, Jonnu Smith regressed to the mean last season with a grade of 33.38. Many of his advanced metrics saw a similar decline. His catch percentage fell by more than 15% to 63.08%, and his yards after the catch dropped to 6.3, lowering his differential to 1.4. His box score statistics weren’t affected, but the manner in which he gained them was far less efficient.

Signing Henry and Smith marks a change in direction for New England

Both the traditional and advanced metrics show that Henry and Smith are good but not exceptional players. Smith’s 2019 grade indicates that he has more potential, but he couldn’t maintain that level of play. Meanwhile, Henry has been consistently average. Still, their signings clearly indicate a new direction for the Patriots offense.

In 2020, the only tight end on New England’s roster to contribute at all in the passing game was Ryan Izzo. He only caught 13 passes for 199 yards. The Patriots clearly signed Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith to place a more significant focus on the position in 2021.

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Assuming that was always their plan, Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith were likely the Patriots’ best potential acquisitions. They were easily the highest-profile free agents at the position, comparing favorably to the likes of Tyler Eifert and Trey Burton.

Meanwhile, New England’s draft choices are limited since the only elite tight end prospect this year is Florida’s Kyle Pitts, and he will likely be gone before New England makes their first selection.

Both Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith might be held back by the Patriots quarterback

Even if the Patriots’ new tight ends can perform at an elite level, New England’s quarterback situation might prevent them from reaching their full potential. Their current quarterback is Cam Newton, who is several years removed from his last decent season.

The addition of Henry and Smith should make him look better. After all, a mediocre quarterback surrounded by good teammates is more dangerous than one that isn’t. Nevertheless, poor quarterback play inevitably puts a cap on your offense’s potential.

Assuming New England goes into next season with Newton as their starter, they will need him to play at a level that he hasn’t managed in years if they want to get the most out of Henry and Smith. It’s not impossible, but I wouldn’t want my offense’s success to hinge on Newton suddenly revitalizing his career. We’ll see if the Patriots’ new faces will be enough to compensate for his limitations.

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