The Miami Dolphins were the NFL leader in yardage gained last season and ranked behind only the Dallas Cowboys in scoring, marks they achieved without much production at the tight end position. Miami opted to bring in veteran Jonnu Smith as a way to plug that hole, and given the potency of this unit, that puts him on our radars.
What are realistic fantasy football expectations for Smith as he enters his age-29 season?
What Is Jonnu Smith’s Fantasy Value After Signing With Miami?
In 2023, Tua Tagovailoa led the league in passing with 4,624 yards (8.3 yards per attempt) in a breakout season. Of course, the majority of those yards came via a pair of elite playmakers at the receiver position.
- Tyreek Hill (16 games): 119 catches for 1,799 yards
- Jaylen Waddle (14 games): 72 catches for 1,014 yards
Both receivers will be back for 2024 — can the Dolphins continue to rely on them at such a high level, or will the savvy of Smith (107 games on his NFL résumé) provide a level of balance that this offense didn’t have a year ago?
2023 Dolphins Receiving Leaders (without Hill/Waddle)
- Durham Smythe: 366 receiving yards
- Cedrick Wilson Jr.: 296 receiving yards
- Braxton Berrios: 238 receiving yards
Smith’s path to a viable fantasy season is unlikely to come via yardage. As you can see, there’s not much meat left on the bone after you allocate Hill and Waddle their high-usage roles, a number that figures to shrink further as De’Von Achane develops in the running game.
That means that, in order for Smith to be of interest, he’s going to need to score in bunches. Not only is that something that we rarely see from Smith (one season with more than three touchdown receptions, 2020 with the Tennessee Titans), but the Dolphins are unlikely to change a red-zone offense that wasn’t broken (21 TDs for Raheem Mostert in 2023).
One of the better kept secrets in fantasy is that the tight end position quietly has some depth to it.
Tier 1
- Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions
- Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
- Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals
- Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
Tier 2
- George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers
- Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
- Brock Bowers, TBD
- Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars
- David Njoku, Cleveland Browns
That leaves very little wiggle room for Smith to enter the conversation of regulars at the position. Not included in the top two tiers are T.J. Hockenson (injury recovery), not to mention players that carry more upside than Smith, like Jake Ferguson, Luke Musgrave, the newly signed Dalton Schultz, and former teammate Kyle Pitts.
At this moment in time, I’d expect Smith’s 2024 season to look a lot like his 2023. That is, a handful of weeks where he finishes among the 12 most valuable at the position, with even more weeks where he’s hardly in the top 20 and a net negative.
KEEP READING: Best Ball Fantasy TE Rankings 2024
Smith inched up my 2024 rankings as a result of this move, but he remains out of the tier in which I’m drafting as a starter. If you’re streaming the TE position, Smith’s name will likely be on your radar when the matchup dictates or one of Miami’s star receivers is banged up. But considering him as anything more than that is a bit optimistic for my liking.
