The Miami Dolphins will face the Buffalo Bills in Week 9. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding TE Jonnu Smith.
Is Jonnu Smith Playing in Week 9?
Smith was listed with a finger injury but was a full participant in Wednesday’s practice. Barring any setbacks, he is on track to play this weekend.
We’ll continue to monitor the Dolphins’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Jonnu Smith in Week 9?
That’s now three straight games with four catches and six targets for Smith, an interesting profile given the trajectory of this Miami offense with Tua Tagovailoa under center.
Smith was on the field for a season-high 67.2% of offensive snaps last — that’s what has my attention. The Dolphins bring a third receiver on the field for just 35% of snaps (second lowest, Ravens), thus indicating, to me, that they officially view the big tight end as their third pass catcher.
Does that lock in viable usage? It doesn’t. We’ve seen this team be as concentrated as any in the league when their duo of star receivers is healthy. However, I’m willing to stream and find out as a cheap way to bet on Tagovailoa.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Week 9 Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Jonnu Smith’s Fantasy Points Projection in Week 9
Smith is projected to score 8 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 3.6 receptions for 37.3 yards and 0.1 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insights: Buffalo Bills Defense
In Week 8, the Buffalo Bills put together their fourth defensive performance inside the top 10 and their sixth inside the top 15 this season. Their current 12th overall ranking is still their worst performance since 2020, but they have gradually moved up the rankings in the last few weeks and are on the verge of the top 10.
The Bills’ biggest concern defensively is their relative struggles when they faced the Ravens, Cardinals, Texans, and Jets, where they have ranked outside of the top 10. Can this defense hold up against mid-level or better offenses, or will it be an Achilles’ heel for the team when they face better teams in the future?
One thing that will help them is that they rank sixth in red-zone efficiency this season, although they struggled in that area against the Ravens. They have been good against the run game generally this year but again struggled in that aspect when facing the Ravens. This Bills’ defense is going to be strenuously tested in the coming weeks, with the Chiefs and 49ers on the horizon.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Jonnu Smith’s Week 9 Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 11:45 PM ET on Saturday, January 25.
Conference Championship TE PPR Rankings
1) Travis Kelce | KC (vs. BUF)
2) Dallas Goedert | PHI (vs. WAS)
3) Dalton Kincaid | BUF (at KC)
4) Zach Ertz | WAS (at PHI)
5) Noah Gray | KC (vs. BUF)
6) Dawson Knox | BUF (at KC)
7) John Bates | WAS (at PHI)
8) Grant Calcaterra | PHI (vs. WAS)
9) Ben Sinnott | WAS (at PHI)
10) Quintin Morris | BUF (at KC)
11) Peyton Hendershot | KC (vs. BUF)
12) E.J. Jenkins | PHI (vs. WAS)
13) Anthony Firkser | NYJ ()
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills Insights
Miami Dolphins
Team: Much has been made of the Dolphins’ ability to play on the East Coast as the weather turns—they don’t play another true East Coast game on the road until Week 17 (at Cleveland and at New York to finish the season).
QB: In his return to action, Tua Tagovailoa completed 28 passes, his most in a game since Week 8 of last season.
Offense: Miami averaged 5.9 yards per play on Sunday, their best mark since Week 1, the only other Tua Tagovailoa full game. In Weeks 2-7, they picked up just 4.4 yards per play.
Defense: The average NFL team records a sack on 21.5% of dropbacks in which they create pressure. Through eight weeks, Miami is 12.3%, the second-lowest in the league (Atlanta).
Fantasy: De’Von Achane produced 56.1% over expectation in the return of QB1 – in the four games Tagovailoa missed, his rate was 39.1% below expectations.
Betting: Miami covered 13 of Tua Tagovailoa’s first 19 starts in November or later. They have been 5-9 ATS in such spots since, with three straight failures to cover (outscored 103-40 across those games).
Buffalo Bills
Team: The Bills are coming off of a stretch where they played four of five games on the road – three of the next four are in front of #BillsMafia (Chiefs in Week 11 and 49ers in Week 13).
QB: In Week 2, James Cook ran for 78 yards and two touchdowns on 11 carries while the Bills had the ball for under 24 minutes. That combination of events resulted in Josh Allen failing to throw multiple touchdown passes for the first time in 14 career games against the Dolphins.
Offense: The Bills scored a touchdown on 9.1% of their drives in the blowout loss to the Ravens in Week 4. They followed that up with a 16.7% rate in Week 5, 33.3% in Week 6, 36.4% in Week 7, and 40% in Seattle last week.
Defense: Buffalo has the fifth-highest pressure rate when bringing the heat (48%), a strength they carried over from last season (47.3%).
Fantasy: Including the playoffs, Allen has cleared 21 fantasy points in 11 of 14 career starts against the Dolphins, five times surpassing 33 points (most recent: Week 3, 2023).
Betting: Each of Buffalo’s past three covers against the Dolphins have checked in under the total (31-10 win in Week 2 with a 49-point closing total).
