Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor has battled injuries in consecutive seasons, something that has fantasy football managers worried about investing a top-15 pick into a position that comes with as much health risk as any.
Is that wise? Or could Taylor prove to be the first step in building a powerhouse redraft team?
Jonathan Taylor’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- PPR Fantasy Points: 312 (271 non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 1,561
- Rushing TDs: 13
- Receptions: 41
- Receiving Yards: 299
- Receiving TDs: 1
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Taylor This Year?
I’m as guilty as anyone of trying to overthink this game of ours, but there’s no need to do that with Taylor. What are the boxes you generally want the leader of your backfield to check?
- Youth
- Role
- Efficiency
- Touchdown potential
- Strong offense
I understand that Taylor may not “feel” like a young option to you, but what if I told you that he’s closer in age to Breece Hall than to Christian McCaffrey?
It’s easy to put him in the “veteran back and past his prime” bucket because of how impactful he was during his first two NFL seasons, but the truth of the matter is that Taylor is entering his physical prime.
THERE GOES JONATHAN TAYLOR!
Where does the Colts RB get drafted in fantasy football drafts in 2024?⤵️⤵️pic.twitter.com/oRG0ZbR2op
— Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL) January 7, 2024
As for the other boxes, I can’t imagine there’s much debate. Taylor averages 5.0 yards per carry across 53 career games and has scored 44 times (one TD every 23.8 touches).
The Colts showed no hesitation in featuring him down the stretch of last season (69 carries in three games to round out the season after he missed a month), and with the Cincinnati Bengals inking Zack Moss to a two-year deal this offseason, who is going threaten JT’s status as a bell cow of bell cows?
Trey Sermon — who has just 78 career carries in three years for three different franchises — is technically second on Indianapolis’ depth chart. Despite that being a significantly low total, Sermon still has 84.8% of the Colts’ RB career carries that don’t belong to Taylor.
This team wants to contend right now, and their path to doing so is featuring Taylor early and often. Are his 13 DNPs over the past two seasons a red flag? They are in the same way that the aforementioned McCaffrey missed 23 games over a two-year stretch. Injuries are a pain when they happen, but drafting scared is leaving fantasy points on the table at a position where that can determine your league.
The only argument against Taylor that I’m even remotely entertaining is the impact of Anthony Richardson’s rushing ability. The second-year signal-caller owns a rare physique and showed the willingness to leverage that in the four games he played as a rookie.
I’m not worried.
Richardson’s versatility may subtract from Taylor’s goal-line usage rate, but if there are more red-zone trips, does it matter?
READ MORE: Fantasy Football RB Rankings 2024
Richardson’s impact on the scoring environment of Indy’s offense as a whole nets out as a net positive in my eyes, which is why I think taking Taylor at the end of Round 1 is a perfectly reasonable way to go about drafting a winner in 2024.
