Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor rebounded a bit last season but still has yet to recapture the greatness of his 2021 season. Following two injury-riddled seasons, can Taylor return to being an elite RB1 in fantasy football this year?
Should You Select Jonathan Taylor at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 11th Overall (RB5)
- Recent Performance: Jonathan Taylor has struggled to replicate his elite 2021 season, averaging 13.3 fantasy points per game in 2022 and 15.6 points per game last year. While these numbers aren’t terrible, they fall short of expectations for a player once considered the top RB in fantasy football.
- Efficiency Decline: Taylor’s efficiency metrics have declined over the past two seasons. His yards per carry dropped to 4.4 last year, and his explosive plays have decreased significantly. The lack of consistent big plays has hurt his fantasy value.
- Impact of Anthony Richardson: While a healthy Anthony Richardson should improve the Colts’ offense, Richardson’s mobility could hurt Taylor’s production in two key areas: the passing game and goal-line opportunities. Taylor’s limited role as a receiver combined with potential touchdown vulturing from Richardson could cap his upside.
- ADP Value: Taylor is currently being drafted as the RB5, 11th overall. While this is a fair price relative to his potential, it’s expensive considering his recent performance. There are other running backs, like Derrick Henry, who offer similar production potential at a lower cost.
- Final Verdict: Taylor’s talent is undeniable, but his current ADP may not provide the best value given the risks. Fantasy managers should weigh the potential benefits against the cost and consider whether comparable production can be found later in the draft.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Jonathan Taylor
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
7) Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR | Detroit Lions
8) Justin Jefferson, WR | Minnesota Vikings
9) A.J. Brown, WR | Philadelphia Eagles
10) Jahmyr Gibbs, RB | Detroit Lions
11) Garrett Wilson, WR | New York Jets
12) Jonathan Taylor, RB | Indianapolis Colts
13) Saquon Barkley, RB | Philadelphia Eagles
14) Puka Nacua, WR | Los Angeles Rams
15) Kyren Williams, RB | Los Angeles Rams
16) Marvin Harrison Jr., WR | Arizona Cardinals
17) Travis Etienne Jr., RB | Jacksonville Jaguars
Jonathan Taylor’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Fantasy managers largely still view Taylor as a strong RB1, but the fact remains we’ve only gotten one elite season from him in four years, and that occurred three years ago.
Taylor averaged 16.9 fantasy points per game as a rookie and 22.0 as a sophomore, finishing as the overall RB1. Since that famed 2021 season, we’ve been waiting and hoping for that JT to return.
We’ve seen flashes, but Taylor’s recent struggles with injury have prevented him from ever sustaining it. After missing just one game over his first two years, Taylor has missed 13 of his last 34 contests, and he’s either been limited or left early in several more.
As a result, Taylor averaged 13.3 fantasy ppg in 2022 and 15.6 points per game last year. These aren’t terrible numbers, but they fall well short of expectations.
In his first two seasons, Taylor was incredibly efficient, averaging 5.0 and 5.5 yards per carry and scoring 12 and 20 touchdowns, respectively. Over the past two years, he’s scored a total of 12 TDs while averaging 4.5 and 4.4 ypc. That’s not bad, but again, it’s short of expectations.
Last season, Taylor’s explosiveness was clearly lacking for most of the year.
Just 3.6% of Taylor’s carries went for 15+ yards, 37th in the league. He also averaged 3.25 yards created per touch (31st). By comparison, in 2021, those numbers were 6.9% (ninth) and 3.72 (third). Unsurprisingly, a host of other efficiency metrics were far superior in 2021 as well.
The Colts’ offense as a whole should benefit from a healthy Anthony Richardson this season. However, while Richardson’s presence should help Taylor’s efficiency, it’s going to hurt the Indianapolis RB in two key areas.
This 49-yard rushing touchdown is the longest run of the season for Jonathan Taylor — and it's a big one! We're all tied up in Indy 🙌🏽 pic.twitter.com/2fT1aP1bLn
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) January 7, 2024
The first is the passing game. Taylor already doesn’t do much in the way of receiving. He saw a 7.6% target share last year, and that was of an overall pie that was much larger than it will be this season … which brings us to the second issue.
As a mobile quarterback, not only will Richardson throwing less result in fewer targets for Taylor, but Richardson’s rushing is going to cut into Taylor’s numbers as well.
Richardson will likely carry the ball 8-10 times a game. Even if the Colts try and protect him from taking too many hits, he’s inevitably going to steal some touchdowns from Taylor. A running back who doesn’t catch passes cannot afford to lose touchdowns.
With that said, Taylor’s talent is undeniable. Look no further than Week 18 of the 2023 season when Taylor ripped off 196 yards against the Houston Texans, scoring 27.6 fantasy points. At his best, specifically in 2021, we saw Taylor top 27 fantasy points four times.
Is Taylor a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Despite not performing anywhere near this level, Taylor’s ADP is RB5 (No. 11 overall). It’s cheap relative to him being a top-five pick at his peak, but it’s expensive relative to how he’s performed every year of his career other than 2021.
Here’s my issue with Taylor: What exactly makes him that much more appealing than someone like Derrick Henry, who goes nearly a round later?
I get that Taylor is younger and not exactly at risk of falling off a cliff, but aren’t their situations quite similar? Henry is in the better offense and has been the better running back more recently.
In a vacuum, Taylor’s price is fair. But I have a very hard time taking players at a spot when I think I can get comparable production later in the draft.
As a result, I will likely pass on Taylor at his ADP.
