After a months-long saga of trade demands, injury issues, and a maybe hold-in, Jonathan Taylor is back. Ian Rapaport reported the Indianapolis Colts signed Jonathan Taylor to a three-year, $42 million extension. What does this mean for fantasy football going forward?
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Fantasy Football Impact of Jonathan Taylor’s Return
Taylor may have missed the first month of the season due to his balky ankle, but the real issue regarding his long-term fantasy value was his contract dispute with the Colts.
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Taylor made it clear he wanted an extension and demanded a trade when the Colts seemed unwilling to provide him with one. That led to speculation that Taylor wasn’t actually hurt but was holding in.
Earlier this week, Taylor spoke to the media and announced his return to the team. At the time, it appeared as though he planned to play out the final year of his rookie deal.
Perhaps that was the plan, but I imagine contract negotiations were very much in the works prior to Taylor’s return. On Saturday, the two sides struck a deal, locking up Taylor for three more years.
Now, fantasy managers don’t need to worry about Taylor possibly playing cautious or getting shut down with a very minor injury. He has his contract. He’s here to stay. And that’s great news for football fans and fantasy managers. Well … at least for the ones who gambled on him in fantasy drafts.
Jonathan Taylor
The fantasy impact on Taylor himself doesn’t require much discussion. Had there been no contract dispute, Taylor likely would’ve been a late first or early second-round selection. He is a clear top option and an elite RB1. I have him as the RB6 in my rest-of-season rankings.
Fantasy managers should temper expectations this week. It is Taylor’s first game back. He hadn’t really practiced at all prior to this week. And the Colts are playing a very tough run defense in the Titans.
Be excited Taylor is back. But don’t expect elite RB1 Taylor to show up just yet. He hasn’t played football in a long time, and reports are he won’t be thrust back into his usual role immediately.
A new contract doesn't mean an unleashed Jonathan Taylor. I was told the Colts are going to be smart with his usage considering he hasn't played since last year because of his ankle. The Colts will have him on a count & ramp up his workload over the next month, per source.
— Dianna Russini (@DMRussini) October 7, 2023
Even if JT duds this week, he is shaping up to be one of the best values this season and a likely league-winner in the third or fourth round.
Zack Moss
Fantasy managers who threw a late-round dart at Zack Moss were very well rewarded to start the season. We got three weeks of elite volume and legitimate RB2 production.
We learned two things from Moss’ last three weeks:
- He is a three-down, all-you-can-handle running back without Taylor.
- Moss is an every-week fantasy starter as the team’s RB1.
That’s the good news. The bad news is he won’t have any standalone fantasy value once Taylor is back to 100%.
Moss will likely mix in a fair amount this week as JT gets reacclimated to playing football. But going forward, it’s going to be Taylor playing over 60% of the snaps. Moss is not going to have fantasy value even if he is the other 40%.
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Fantasy managers may find themselves considering dropping Moss within the next couple of weeks. I would try to hang onto him. There aren’t many backup running backs we can be sure are the true handcuff to the starter, and that will actually play 90% of the starter’s snaps. Moss is a surefire RB2 if JT goes down. That’s worth stashing, especially as injuries mount.
Anthony Richardson and the Rest of the Colts
Taylor’s return is certainly not a bad thing. He’s not going to take any targets from Michael Pittman Jr. He’s not going to sap Anthony Richardson’s fantasy value. His presence simply makes the Colts a better offense. That will benefit everyone involved.
If you have Richardson or Pittman, there’s no action to take here. Just be glad Taylor is back and be pleased with the value you got on your player(s) relative to where you drafted them.