With the NFL playoffs right around the corner, it’s time to dive into these 14 teams from a fantasy football perspective. For those playing in playoff fantasy leagues, let’s take a look at team backfields and how to approach them in various playoff fantasy formats. What is the playoff fantasy value of Bengals running backs Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine?
Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine’s Fantasy Value
Coming off the best season of his career, Mixon was an obvious regression candidate, particularly in the touchdown department. After scoring 16 times last season, Mixon finished the fantasy season with half as many in three fewer games.
Additionally, Mixon’s overall volume took a hit. He averaged 18.25 carries per game in 2021. In 2022, that number dropped to 15.3.
Mixon was still an excellent fantasy running back in 2022. He averaged 15.9 PPR fantasy points per game. It was a drop of 2.1 ppg from last season, but he still finished firmly inside RB1 territory.
The big savior of Mixon’s season has been his increased passing game role. His 14% target share is the highest of his career and inside the top 10 at the position. He set career highs in targets, receptions, and receiving yards.
Amazingly, Perine was also able to have a career year. Now, to be fair, Perine scored more than half his season total fantasy points across a three-game stretch where Mixon was concussed. He only cracked double-digits in one other game. Outside of those three games, Perine averaged 5.6 ppg.
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If you are playing in a full-length playoff format where you can choose whoever you want to be on your roster, Mixon is a great option. The Bengals are the third favorites to win the AFC. If they do make another Super Bowl run, they will have to play four games to do it.
The biggest concern with taking someone like Mixon is you may only get two games out of him. The Bengals and Bills are very likely to meet in the Divisional Round. The Bills will be favored in that game (although likely by very little).
At the same time, there’s a strong argument to be made that Mixon is the most valuable AFC running back in playoff fantasy football. Obviously, Austin Ekeler is the best running back in the playoffs, but the Chargers are unlikely to play more than two games.
There’s a strong argument to be made for including Mixon on full-length playoff rosters regardless. He has the best role of any AFC running back and is on a team we know has a realistic shot and going on a run.
As for Perine, he has no standalone value. Out of context, his seasonal ppg suggests there could be some utility. But a further dive into his usage and performance in games where Mixon is healthy reveals a player that is purely a backup in fantasy. You are not handcuffing in the playoffs.
Fantasy Outlook for Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine in Wild Card Weekend
For those of you playing DFS or in a one-and-done playoff format, well, I can’t group them both together. Mixon is very much on the table for DFS contests. He could be a nice contrarian play against a Ravens defense allowing the 10th-fewest fantasy points to running backs.
While Mixon may not be overly efficient on the ground, he comes with a solid receptions floor and has as good of a shot as anyone to punch in a short touchdown or two.
In one-and-done playoff formats, I would not use Mixon this week. If you read my primer on how to approach this format, you know to look for the best possible players on teams likely to lose.
It is too risky to burn Mixon in the first round, given the potential for the Bengals to reach the Super Bowl. Additionally, the matchup isn’t good enough to justify it.
In sum, Mixon is someone I’m looking to include on full-length playoff rosters but not use this weekend in one-and-done formats. Perine is completely hands-off in all formats except for deeper formats with a snake draft. If that type of league, Perine fits with a Bengals’ stack as you’re just trying to amass as many players on the teams you’re betting on to reach the Super Bowl.