With news that Joe Mixon suffered a low-grade ankle injury on Sunday, all eyes are turning to his near-term playing potential, as well as whether backup Samaje Perine should be a top-three waiver add in fantasy football.
Update: Joe Mixon is listed as questionable for Week 5 but is trending towards playing in some capacity.
Joe Mixon is both undervalued and injury-prone
Few running backs divide the fantasy community as much as Mixon. The Bengals drafted him in the second round in 2017 as a mere 20-year-old with two years of NCAA eligibility remaining. The team already had two backs with bellcow experience: 25-year-old Jeremy Hill and 26-year-old Giovani Bernard. Yet, both of them wrapped up the 2016 season with sub-4.0 yards per carry.
Within three weeks, Mixon had supplanted Hill and Bernard as Cincinnati’s primary running back, and he has never looked back — when healthy. The challenge for Mixon has been health, as he missed 14 games in his first four seasons, slowing a promising career that saw him eclipse 1,400 total yards in both 2018 and 2019. Last year was particularly brutal, as he was on pace to exceed his career high in single-season rushing yards before going down in Week 6.
Despite his health struggles, Mixon has been a highly undervalued fantasy asset when he plays. In each of the last three seasons, he has been a top-13 RB in fantasy points per game. Although his ceiling tends to be lower than most RB1s, his bellcow role (in an increasingly anti-bellcow era) has made him a fairly reliable contributor when active.
What do we make of Samaje Perine?
Bernard’s move to Tampa Bay opened the door for Perine, who is now on his third team in the last four seasons. A fourth-round pick in Mixon’s draft class, the longtime backup is far from being an unknown. He earned some run last season after Mixon’s season-ending injury, with strong performances against Pittsburgh, Houston, and Baltimore. Perine is also capable enough in the passing game. But let’s face it — a heavy dose of Perine would be a tangible downgrade for Cincinnati’s offense. Mixon is simply more talented.
If Mixon is forced to sit, Perine offers RB3/4 potential against the Packers and perhaps RB2/3 potential the following week in Detroit. Some fantasy managers will overreach for him this week through no fault of their own. These are desperate times if you’re 1-3 or 0-4. If your best No. 2 RB is an unreliable option like Ronald Jones, of course Perine is a must-add and likely a must-start. But don’t get carried away.
Joe Mixon Start/Sit Week 5: If he plays, should you trust him?
The Bengals are playing above their weight in the AFC North, nestled in a three-way tie with Baltimore and Cleveland for first place. This is not a year to play it safe and protect their franchise RB. That said, Mixon signed a $48 million extension last year that pays him through 2023, with a club option for 2024. Still only 25 years old, Mixon remains a cornerstone of Cincinnati’s short-term objective — winning a playoff game, something they have not done in 31 years.
If Mixon sits, I would advise spending a few bucks of FAAB on Perine and then trading him to the person who has Mixon. You’ll probably get more value in return than you would starting Perine.
The worst-case scenario for fantasy managers would be Mixon playing but splitting time with Perine. And that is entirely possible if his ankle holds up ahead of Week 5. In this scenario, I would suggest looking elsewhere unless you don’t have access to a plug-in RB3+.
Desperate times, indeed. But don’t give up hope. Remember that you don’t have to hold onto Mixon if you need to win now. Consider trading him to a top team in your league for some immediate help. If you’re 1-3 or 0-4, Mixon won’t help you get back on top. You need to climb back to .500. It’s win now or go home.