After seven years on the Cincinnati Bengals, six as the starter, Joe Mixon has found a new home. The Bengals traded Mixon to the Houston Texans, where he will presumably play out the final year of his current contract. Switching teams at an advanced age usually doesn’t go well for running backs. Is this the end of Mixon as a productive fantasy football asset?
What Is the Fantasy Impact of Joe Mixon Being Traded to the Houston Texans?
On Tuesday, the Bengals gave us a prime example of how the legal tampering period is actually different from the official start of free agency. Although the Bengals informed Mixon of his impending release, nothing was official yet. That enabled them to continue working behind the scenes to see if they could do something more beneficial.
The #Bengals are trading Joe Mixon to the #Texans. 😳
Another weapon for C.J. Stroud.#WeAreTexans | #RuleTheJungle pic.twitter.com/t5Tu1xD7k6
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) March 12, 2024
A trade helps both sides. The Texans don’t have to give Mixon a new contract, as he can play out the final year of his current one. Meanwhile, the Bengals are able to get something in return for a player they knew wasn’t going to be on the team. It’s a rare win-win…that is…if Mixon still has something left in the tank.
I am quite torn about how I feel here. This whole situation is eerily reminiscent of what the Minnesota Vikings did with Dalvin Cook last season. Of course, Cook took a lot longer to find a new team than the one day it took Mixon. That probably should’ve been a sign.
Nevertheless, we have two running backs who were both starters with their drafted teams for six years. Both entering their age 28 seasons. Both coming off seasons where they very clearly weren’t as good as they were at their peaks.
For Cook, it became readily apparent after just one game with the New York Jets that it was over. But Cook was being taken around the seventh or eighth round of fantasy drafts. Plus, the Jets had Breece Hall, who we knew was eventually going to fully recover from his ACL tear and be the lead back. Cook’s time was always going to be limited.
Mixon’s situation is a bit different. There is no incumbent in Houston. Their best running back from last season, Devin Singletary, signed with the New York Giants. It’s possible the Texans draft a running back (likely on Day 3, if at all), but I seriously doubt that guy would be any threat to Mixon. He’s the clear and unquestioned starter.
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The move to Houston is good for Mixon’s volume. Chase Brown would have posed far more of a threat to Mixon’s touches, particularly his receiving volume, than Dameon Pierce will. If the Texans opt to go with Dare Ogunbowale again on third downs, pulling Mixon, that’s their choice. I think Mixon will see enough work in the passing game, regardless.
Mixon is not going to blow anyone away with explosiveness or big runs. Not at his age. But at 28 years old, there’s reason to believe he has one more solid year left (maybe two).
What Mixon can do is eat carries. With the exception of 2020, Mixon has played at least 14 games every year of his career. He’s missed a total of two contests over the past three seasons.
The Texans are poised to have one of the league’s best offenses. Led by C.J. Stroud coming off one of the greatest seasons by a rookie QB of all time, this team is going to score points.
Mixon just needs to continue averaging around 4.0 yards per carry on around 14-16 carries a game, catch 2-3 balls, and score around 10 touchdowns. A redux of last season in a better offense (compared to last year’s Bengals) would once again put Mixon around the RB1/2 border.
It’s far too early to predict where Mixon’s ADP might end up. Given the history of older backs changing teams, we could easily see Mixon outside of the top three rounds.
Anything Round 4 or later is at least worth considering, depending on the options at other positions. For now, I am cautiously optimistic that Mixon could end up being a James Conner-like value in 2024.
Stick a Proverbial Fork in Dameon Pierce’s Fantasy Value
I don’t think anyone needed the Texans to trade for Mixon to be out on Pierce. That was readily apparent last season when he not only lost his job to Singletary but was completely removed from having any offensive role, relegated almost exclusively to special teams.
In the short time between the Texans losing Singletary and acquiring Mixon, I doubt there was even a single person out there who truly believed there was a chance Pierce would go into the season as the RB1.
After Pierce’s strong rookie season, there were plenty of fantasy analysts out there advising managers to trade him. Why? History told us so.
Justified or not, Day 3 and UDFA running backs have no job security. For every Arian Foster and Austin Ekeler, there are dozens of Phillip Lindsays, Tre Masons, and James Robinsons. Unless a running back is truly special (like Foster and Ekeler), NFL teams will have no reservations about replacing a guy they haven’t heavily invested in.
Pierce averaged 2.9 yards per carry on 145 attempts last season. He did that in the same offense that Singletary averaged 4.2 yards per carry on 216 rushes. I don’t even think Pierce has injury-contingent value. If Mixon goes down, I can’t tell you who it will be, just that it won’t be Pierce.
Sadly, the most likely career path for Pierce is he doesn’t even make it to the end of his rookie contract. I think the Texans cut Pierce after the 2024 season, and that’s the end of his NFL career.
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If you have Pierce on a dynasty roster, he is worth trading for quite literally anything you can get in return.