Houston Texans RB Joe Mixon is entering his eighth NFL season. If he’s a solid fantasy football asset this year, he will be the first running back since 2010 to be relevant for more than seven seasons. What does Mixon’s projection look like for the 2024 season?
Joe Mixon’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 15.2
- Rushing Yards: 991
- Rush TDs: 9.4
- Receptions: 51
- Receiving Yards: 374
- Receiving TDs: 2.6
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Mixon This Year?
The argument against Mixon is quite simple. He’s 28 years old and has amassed 1,854 career touches. Modern running backs don’t last this long.
Mixon is changing teams, which is another negative. He also hasn’t been particularly efficient in a while. Last season, a mere 3.1% of Mixon’s rushes went for 15+ yards, 41st in the NFL, while his 3.2 yards created per touch ranked 35th.
The thing about Mixon, though, is that he’s reliable and gets the job done. He’s never really been efficient, however. His performance last season isn’t indicative of any sort of decline in ability.
Mixon’s career yards per carry is 4.1. Last year, he was at 4.0 and saw a solid 10.8% target share. His 15.7 fantasy points per game are right in line with what he’s done his entire career.
Now, Mixon goes to another fantasy-friendly offense led by C.J. Stroud, one of the best young quarterbacks in the league. With backups Dameon Pierce and Dare Ogunbowale, Mixon has virtually no competition for touches. He’s locked into the goal-line role and has three-down potential.
Mixon may be older, but he hasn’t shown signs of decline. He can handle a heavy workload, and Houston has given every indication they want to utilize him that way.
I have Mixon projected for about 330 opportunities, which is a marginal increase from last season’s 321. Those projected opportunities for 2024 result in 1,114 rushing yards, 406 receiving yards on 48 receptions, and 13 total touchdowns, thus landing him at the RB8 spot in my projections.
Very little separates Mixon from the RB4 and RB14. You could say that represents his most probable range of outcomes.
Given where Mixon is going in fantasy drafts, managers may view him as a typical dead-zone RB. However, the dead zone is often misconstrued as starting with any running back going in the second half of the third round. That’s not actually what the dead zone is. Instead, it’s really the group of running backs from around RB18-RB30.
Mixon’s draft placement in the area where dead-zone running backs typically go is more a result of wide receivers being pushed up draft boards. As a high RB2, Mixon doesn’t qualify.
Mixon’s ADP sits at RB15. He has not finished lower than that since 2019. As a result of all of the above, I’m quite bullish on Mixon this season.
I ranked Mixon as my RB12. While I don’t see top-five upside for him, Mixon carries a very high floor, and I do see the potential for him to beat his ADP. My projection for 13 total touchdowns is a bit lofty, but there’s definitely a world where Mixon scores 15+.
Even if I did overshoot it a bit, a drop to 9-10 touchdowns would only knock about a point per game off his tally. Mixon would still be worth drafting at his ADP.