Joe Mixon and his future with the Cincinnati Bengals was unclear for much of this offseason. But Mixon elected to restructure his deal and now will be locked into this offense for not only this season but potentially next year, too. Mixon’s finished as a top-10 per-game fantasy football producer at the position in three of his past four healthy seasons and is coming off of a season with a career-high 60 grabs.
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Joe Mixon’s Fantasy Outlook
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. The Bengals rank fifth in points per game over the past two seasons and are running back essentially the same offense in 2023.
Joe Burrow is at the controls with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins being his primary weapons, while Mixon, again, lines up as the every-down back. Yes, the team spent a fifth-round pick on Chase Brown (5.3 yards per carry during his collegiate career with 13 touchdowns last season in 12 games for Illinois), but he’s more of a plotter that was a volume back in college — a role he’s not going to assume any time soon in Cincinnati.
Brown makes for an interesting insurance option if you have health concerns on Mixon (only one full season on his NFL résumé), but he’s not a major threat to take any usage off of Mixon’s plate from the jump.
Cincy ranked fourth in pass rate last season and third in the percentage of offensive yards that came through the air. Mixon’s role in the passing game expanded last season, as he saw his catch total spike by 18 from 2021 despite playing in two fewer games. His work as a receiver is no longer a minor uptick in value; it’s something that elevates his stock, something he showed by catching 5+ passes in back-to-back-to-back games to round out the regular season.
Can Mixon Continue To Return Value in Year 7?
Any time you’re spending decent draft capital on a running back with over 1,300 carries and 1,500 career touches, you’re going to have concerns. I get it. We’ve been conditioned to fear the age curve, and it seems like the “cliff age” is always getting younger. Relax.
It is true that, since 2016, we’ve only seen four running backs average at least 14.5 half-PPR fantasy points in their seventh season or later. That would have been RB10 a season ago, so maybe the ceiling isn’t overwhelming. Over that stretch, the efficiency metrics have declined, but just barely and not nearly enough to scare me off of a back like Mixon, whose volume I label as safe.
Since 2016, RB career seasons 1-6
- Fantasy Points Per Touch: 0.79
- Fantasy Points Per Target: 1.20
Since 2016, RB career season seven or later
- Fantasy Points Per Touch: 0.74 (down 6.3%)
- Fantasy Points Per Target: 1.10 (down 8.3%)
As I said, there is some gradual decline, as you’d expect. But nothing that screams “full fade” to me. As long as the Bengals’ offense continues to trend up, there is little proof that Mixon is approaching any sort of disastrous season and should be viewed as a safe fantasy option in all formats.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Mixon at His ADP?
Mixon is an early -fourth-round pick right now (RB15), an ADP that allows you to get exposure to an elite offense at a reasonable price. Last season, nine running backs that played for a top-10 scoring offense ranked inside the top 25 at the position in touches per game. All nine of them finished inside the top 25 in per-game fantasy scoring.
That creates a nice floor outcome. If you take it a step further, you’ll notice that six of those nine finished as RB16 or better. Mixon was in that bucket last season and projects as a threat to do it again in 2023.
MORE: Top RBs To Draft in Fantasy Football 2023
The counter to taking Mixon at this point in the draft would be roster construction. If you went with a top-tier RB early on, passing on Mixon for a veteran receiver like Keenan Allen or Amari Cooper makes plenty of sense. If that’s how your build works out, you have the Soppe Stamp of Approval, but I won’t co-sign taking running backs like Travis Etienne Jr. ahead of him.