Houston Texans RB Joe Mixon has been a viable starting fantasy football option for three straight seasons since missing 10 games in 2020. That production came as a part of a Cincinnati Bengals offense that was considered the next elite unit in the NFL, a role the Texans now hold.
Mixon will enter this campaign as a 28-year-old and nearly 2,000 touches on his professional résumé, a profile that has fantasy managers treading lightly. Will his lack of efficiency finally limit his bottom line, or will the potency of Houston’s offense elevate Mixon to the point where he’s considered a low-end RB1?
Joe Mixon’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
The single most valuable thing an NFL franchise can have is a franchise quarterback on a rookie contract. The Texans are aware of that, as the acquisitions of Mixon and Stefon Diggs point to this team looking to win and win big now — the exact mindset a redraft fantasy manager should want when drafting a veteran back.
Houston can get out of the final year of Mixon’s deal, but at the very least, he looks like an unchallenged bell cow for an offense that we all believe will rank among the five most potent in the league as long as C.J. Stroud is on the field over the next two seasons.
Outside of age, what is scaring you? There’s no concern about the trajectory of Houston’s offense, and excuse me if Dameon Pierce (zero yards last postseason and last 30-yard touch came in early November 2022) or Dare Ogunbowale (30 years old, career highlight is being used as a placekicker) don’t strike fear into my soul.
Mixon has battled his efficiency concerns. His 4.9 yards per carry in 2018 is proving to be an outlier, as he hasn’t cleared 4.1 in a season since. But until YPC is a stat we’re given points for in the fantasy world, I’m not too worried about it.
The volume appears safe, and the scoring opportunities should be high. Why can’t Mixon compile over 1,200 yards and nine touchdowns for a fourth straight season?
I’m not moving mountains to acquire Mixon, but I have a hard time thinking that, at cost, you lose your league because you paid for his services. He’s being drafted in the same neighborhood as Kenneth Walker III, who’s more talented but has more competition on a lesser offense, and Alvin Kamara, a veteran with his own efficiency concerns.
In the fifth round, Mixon is a fine pick. I find myself landing on Anthony Richardson more often than not in this range, but if your roster construction requires you to consider the RB position, I have no issue with taking the newest Texan.
If you find yourself with a balanced roster through four rounds and don’t want to go with a one-off position (QB/TE), go ahead and grab Mixon. The wide receivers in the coming round are strong (Jayden Reed and Terry McLaurin types), whereas the RB position is flirting with a cliff as you get into the middle rounds.
Joe Mixon’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 15.2
- Rushing Yards: 991
- Rush TDs: 9.4
- Receptions: 51
- Receiving Yards: 374
- Receiving TDs: 2.6
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
