Joe Mixon’s fantasy football outlook has been one we discussed for multiple years leading into our drafts. This year, we have a new storyline to discuss as the veteran running back changes teams from the Cincinnati Bengals to the Houston Texans.
The 28-year-old RB is looking for a fresh start and a chance at workhorse production on one of the league’s best offenses. Let’s break down Mixon’s fantasy outlook to see if he is someone we should target or fade at his average draft position (ADP) of 44th overall.
Joe Mixon’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Season
When we look at running backs, we have to break down their research into two categories: rushing and receiving.
Let’s begin with rushing, where Mixon was special for us in fantasy last season. He received the fifth-most rushing attempts and produced the eighth-most rushing yards (1,034) with the 11th-most touchdowns. But even with these impressive stats, we still have issues to worry about in Mixon’s game.
TruMedia ranks Mixon 27th best in yards per rush with a 4.0 average. He was also 26th overall in third-down rushing conversion with a 50% success rate.
Now that we have a new team with a different scheme and a different line, we must question whether Mixon will produce these same inefficient numbers.
When it comes to the passing game, there were no inefficient moments in Mixon’s receiving. He received 64 targets (13th-highest among qualifying running backs), turning them into 52 receptions, the ninth-best in the NFL.
On those receptions, he produced 376 receiving yards, which ranks 12th best in the league, and the ninth-most receiving touchdowns for an RB (3).
Is Mixon a Good Fantasy Pick?
Although we’d like to see his ADP lower, Mixon is a fine fantasy pick for your team. If your fantasy draft strategy is to select wide receivers to start, Mixon is a perfect running back in the fourth round to give you volume.
Remember, volume is king for running backs. But we also want that volume to be within a potent offense.
The allure to Mixon’s production is his new team’s offense. The Texans should put up points in bunches, allowing him to reside in the red zone more than other running backs.
Our biggest issue with Mixon is his bye week, as he lands in the dreaded Week 14 bye.
For most fantasy players, losing a player you must draft in your top 50 overall is heartbreaking and detrimental to your fantasy success. However, the opportunity to pass up in Houston with Mixon is too great. So draft this running back and land a few others at his position later to help you get over the Week 14 jump.