The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs is upon us, which means just seven games are remaining in the season. Time is limited to capitalize on fantasy football and betting value. Here at Pro Football Network, we’re diving into each individual player taking the field this weekend and seeing what values might exist. Today, we’ll look at Joe Mixon’s DFS value and whether any prop bets are worth taking.
Joe Mixon’s DFS value vs. Titans
Mixon checks in at $6,600 for this weekend’s slate on DraftKings. He’s the third-most-expensive running back. The Bengals are slight road underdogs. Typically, we want running backs in our DFS lineups that are on favorites because a positive game script usually leads to more running.
Interestingly, the Bengals have won four straight games and experienced mostly positive game scripts in all four. Yet, Mixon failed to rush for more than 65 yards in any of them. In fact, he has gone six consecutive contests with between 46 and 65 rushing yards. The Titans allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs this season, which is bad news for Mixon’s outlook.
On the flip side, Mixon’s target count has been strong recently. He’s seen 19 targets over his last three games and is averaging 5.7 receptions for 46 yards per game. Mixon’s volume keeps his floor high, but it’s his ceiling I’m concerned about.
The Titans are well-rested coming off a bye, and the Bengals have really been leaning on Joe Burrow and the passing game lately. Mixon is always a threat to find the end zone, but I’m not optimistic about a smash game here. Devin Singletary ($5,900), Elijah Mitchell ($5,800), and whoever starts for the Bucs present better value.
Joe Mixon prop bets this weekend
Mixon’s rushing line opened at 61.5 (-115) on Draftkings. It’s in the range of what I expected and a good line that does not present value on either side. If I had to take a position on Mixon’s rushing total, I would lean over because Mixon has splash play upside. However, in my list of props I will be betting this weekend, Mixon’s rushing total is not one of them.
[bet-promo id=”174860″ ]His receiving total opened at 20.5 (under -120). Similar to the rushing number, I have no interest in betting this prop. He’s gone over this number just seven times this season, but three of them have come in his last three games. Potential negative game script might point to the over, but Mixon’s receptions typically come during neutral-positive game script. When the Bengals are trailing, they turn to Samaje Perine. I would stay away from Mixon props this weekend.