Major League Baseball likes its numbers. You’ve got 714. You’ve got 56. You’ve got 42. Even casual baseball fans know to what each of these digits refer.
The National Football League’s numbers tend to be a bit more ephemeral, not because they’re any more or less important than baseball’s, but because they change constantly.
And we might see some more change today.
Club Five-K
One of the more impressive NFL numbers is 5,000, which, for the sake of this discussion, refers to a big, fat single-season passing total. Only eight quarterbacks in league history have eclipsed that mark:
- Peyton Manning – 5,477 yards (2013, Denver Broncos)
- Drew Brees – 5,476 yards (2011, New Orleans Saints)
- Tom Brady – 5,316 yards (2021, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
- Patrick Mahomes – 5,250 yards (2022, Kansas City Chiefs)
- Drew Brees – 5,208 yards (2016, New Orleans Saints)
- Drew Brees – 5,177 yards (2013, New Orleans Saints)
- Drew Brees – 5,162 yards (2012, New Orleans Saints)
- Ben Roethlisberger – 5,129 yards (2018, Pittsburgh Steelers)
- Jameis Winston – 5,109 yards (2019, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
- Dan Marino – 5,084 yards (1984, Miami Dolphins)
- Drew Brees – 5,069 yards (2008, New Orleans Saints)
- Justin Herbert – 5,014 yards (2021, Los Angeles Chargers)
(That Drew Brees guy was pretty good, wasn’t he?)
If Cincinnati Bengals’ field general Joe Burrow has himself a game today, he’ll become number nine. Heading into Cincy’s season-ending clash in Pittsburgh against the Steelers, Burrow sits at 4,641 yards, 359 away from throwing his way into this exclusive club.
JOE BURROW WITH ONE OF THE CRAZIEST PLAYS OF THE SEASON.
ESCAPES FROM 5 DEFENDERS… SPIN… OVER THE SHOULDER INSANE THROW TO HIS TE.
😱😱😱
ABSOLUTELY INSANE.
pic.twitter.com/p1hkQ16IQ8— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) December 22, 2024
Now 359 is a high-level performance, but it’s eminently doable for the man they call Joe Cool, as he’s dropped 350-plus on five occasions in 2024:
- October 6, 2024: vs. Baltimore Ravens – 392 yards
- November 7, 2024: at Baltimore Ravens – 428 yards
- November 17, 2024: at Los Angeles Chargers – 356 yards
- December 9, 2024: at Dallas Cowboys – 369 yards
- December 28, 2024: vs. Denver Broncos – 412 yards
(We should note that PFN’s QB+ metric very much reflects Burrow’s sheer 2024 awesomeness. With a grade of 92.1 (A-), Burrow trails only Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff, and Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen.
PFN’s QB+ metric assigns a letter grade to every quarterback performance and factors in a number of stats such as success rate when pressured, third-down conversion rate, pocket production, and clutch performance.)
But Burrow hasn’t done it alone. After all, where there are passing yards, there are also receiving yards.
Joe’s Two-Headed Receiving Monster
Here in his fourth season, Cincy’s WR1 Ja’Marr Chase has gone next level, setting career highs in yardage (1,612), touchdowns (16), and yards per game (100.8). He’s hauled in 117 of his 161 targets—that 117 is also a career high—and, for the last seven games, has been all but uncoverable.
Every catch from Ja'Marr Chase's monster night on MNF:
🐅 14 catches
🐅 177 yards
🐅 2 TD pic.twitter.com/v0Wh55L6k4— NFL (@NFL) December 10, 2024
Part of the reason Chase has been so darn scary is that the Bengals’ WR2 is almost as frightening himself. Tee Higgins—who missed five games due to injury—is also having himself a year, posting career highs in YPG (78.0), and touchdowns (10). The Clemson product put together a pair of 130-plus yard outings, and is a large part of the reason Cincinnati leads the league in passing yardage.
Burrow also has a couple of semi-secret weapons in tight end Mike Gesicki (597 yards) and wide receiver Andrei Iosivas (467 yards), not to mention that the running back tandem of Chase Brown and Zack Moss have combined for 547 yards through the air.
Big numbers, for sure, but are the Steelers concerned? Probably not as much as you’d expect.
Steel Curtain 2.0?
Pittsburgh’s defense might not be what you’d call elite, but they’re nerve-wracking in their own way, ranking 11th in total yards allowed per game at 327.5. Thing is, T.J. Watt and his brethren do most of their damage against the run, giving up just 100.6 yards per game, seventh-fewest in the league. Their pass defense on the other hand, is well below average—Mike Tomlin’s crew allows 226.9 yards a game, ninth from the cellar.
When the Bengals hosted the Steelers at the beginning of December, Pittsburgh made Burrow look relatively mortal—the key word there being “relatively”—as he threw for 309 yards and three touchdowns, the only time the Steelers have allowed a 300-plus passing performance this season. That game was the third consecutive outing in which Burrow torched Pittsburgh’s secondary; back in 2022, the QB put together outings of 338 (September 11) and 335 (November 20) yards.
The takeaway there is that in his career, Burrow has yet to rack up 359-plus yards against the black-and-yellow. Hmm.
Is 5,000 Realistic?
Burrow’s pursuit for 5,000 yards will likely be secondary in his mind when he runs onto the Acrisure Stadium turf, as Cincinnati needs a win to remain in the playoff picture. That said, the Bengals have found the most success when fully unleashing Burrow, having lost only one game in which the former top pick threw for less than 250 yards, so expect Bengals HC Zac Taylor and OC Dan Pitcher to dial up passes galore.
As for the Steelers, they’ve already punched their ticket to the postseason, so they’re not quite as desperate as Cincy. If they get a little help from Cleveland—if the Browns can upset Baltimore in today’s early game—an AFC North crown is a possibility for Pittsburgh.
(Thing is, the Browns haven’t helped anybody this season, especially themselves, so nobody’s holding their breath on that one.) But Tomlin’s gonna Tomlin, and in front of a raucous, towel-happy home crowd, will likely play his starters early and often, whether or not the division is still up for grabs.
All that said, you’ve got a pass-first, playoff-hungry unit visiting a squad that might have nothing tangible to play for, so the table is set for Joe Burrow to join the exclusive 5,000-yard club.
The question is, now that the table is ready to go, will Burrow eat?