We have a marquee quarterback matchup in Week 13, in what is becoming a true rivalry right before our eyes. Joe Burrow vs. Patrick Mahomes will certainly draw eyeballs when two of the best quarterbacks on two of the best teams take the field. Both QBs sit within the top five of our latest QB Power Rankings, and both teams sit atop their respective divisions.
Now, of course, they’re not taking the field against each other directly. Mahomes will be facing the Cincinnati Bengals‘ defense, and Burrow will be facing the Kansas City Chiefs‘ defense. However, that doesn’t mean we can’t still find a way to get them going head to head, and win some money in the process in our Super Smash QB Matchup of the Week.
Underdog Pick’ems for Joe Burrow vs. Patrick Mahomes Matchup
This past Wednesday, Trey Wingo and myself, as we do each week on our show Football Insiders, broke down this elite matchup of signal-callers. Of course, this week, it featured two of the game’s top quarterbacks.
Trey always reminds us that these two quarterbacks are not actually facing off against one another, but that there is a way to bring this matchup to life.
MORE: Chiefs vs. Bengals Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Week 13
The best part about Underdog Fantasy is that it allows us to take the typically hypothetical QB matchups between the game’s best players and put them in actual head-to-head situations for us to have a shot at winning some money.
Luckily for us, there are several matchups where we get to put Mahomes and Burrow against each other, plus other entries that we can fill out our Underdog Pick’ems roster with. Below are mine, using my Behavior Bets sports betting model.
Patrick Mahomes Lower Than 310.5 Passing Yards
Mahomes averages 10.41 passing yards per minute of possession time through 11 games this season, and he’s only trending higher. In fact, week over week, that number is growing by 12%, with a rather small bounce rate of only x1.8. This means that within his highest and lowest performances, the variability is only a ratio of x1.8. That is pretty strong consistency.
For a full game, 10.41 passing yards per minute at the Chiefs’ average time of possession is 317.5 yards. At first glance, you might say that’s higher than the passing yards listed on Underdog. It is. However, behavior does not occur in a vacuum and the Bengals’ defense provides an environment for that behavior we must take into account.
When we go inside the Behavior Bets model, Mahomes is projected to throw for less than 300 yards. With a 10+ yard margin for error, I feel comfortable recommending lower than the 310.5 listed by Underdog.
Joe Burrow Lower Than 298.5 Passing Yards
Burrow is seeing about the same growth rate week over week in his passing yards as Mahomes. Burrow is seeing 11%, which is slightly under Mahomes’ 12% growth.
The difference here is that Burrow is averaging almost two full yards per minute of possession time as Mahomes. Underdog knows this too, which is why they set the mark for him 12 yards lower at 298.5.
The Behavior Bets model projects Burrow to throw for lower than that when accounting for the Week 13 environment impacted by Kansas City’s defense. I project him to throw for less than 292 yards.
That six-yard margin is slimmer than the more than 10+ yards we have to play with in the Mahomes projection, but nevertheless, it’s still enough for me to move forward with putting Burrow in my pick’em roster.
Joe Burrow +11.5 vs. Patrick Mahomes
The Underdog Pick’em Rivals game is where we see the true head-to-head action of Burrow vs. Mahomes. I made this pick’em entry as part of a larger Rivals Pick’em roster.
Based on the Behavior Bets model projections for each quarterback in passing yards, I project Burrow to finish the game within 11.5 passing yards of Mahomes.
MORE: Ja’Marr Chase Injury Update for Week 13
Not only does this account for the unique defensive environments each quarterback will be entering into, but it also accounts for the last four games where Burrow played without Ja’Marr Chase, who is likely to return in this one. That obviously won’t hurt his chances to match the projection.
With my Underdog Fantasy entries, as well as my Week 13 game predictions and bets at Caesars Sportsbook, you can follow all of it in one place with the best bet-tracking app on the market in Pikkit. Completely free, and the easiest place to track my bets, engage with me and others, and join the fast growing sports betting community.