Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow has dealt with injuries during his short NFL career, but when active, he’s proven himself as one of the sport’s premier pocket passers.
As he looks to rebound from a down 2023, how confident should fantasy football managers be in labeling Burrow as a Tier 2 quarterback? While the position gets deeper, evaluating each option is increasingly critical, and how he projects for you could determine your fate in 2024.
Joe Burrow’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 352
- Passing Yards: 4,776
- Passing TDs: 35
- Interceptions: 13
- Rushing Yards: 193
- Rushing TDs: 3
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Burrow This Year?
What a difference a year makes. Just 12 months ago, we were trying to decide if Burrow was a Tier 1 fantasy QB, and now, I’ve seen him fall as low as the QB10 in drafts.
Joe Burrow timeline cleanse pic.twitter.com/XmxiTb5PV2
— nathan😾 (@nwhodey) July 15, 2024
From the start of 2021 through the end of 2022, Burrow was a top-five signal-caller in completions, completion percentage, passing yards, passing touchdowns, touchdown rate, yards per deep pass, and passer rating when pressured.
In other words, he was as good as it got in just about every category known to mankind and entered his age-26 season with a pair of dynamic receivers by his side.
The process of buying Burrow entering 2023 was sound, but health got in the way. It happens from time to time, and it happened to plenty of quarterbacks last season. As long as he has a clean bill of health when your draft day comes around, why not trust him to lead your team as a sixth-round pick?
Burrow’s body of work last season when he was on the field was a bit underwhelming by his lofty standards. Yet, I used the words “on the field” for a reason.
He’s no Michael Vick, but a preseason calf injury certainly sapped Burrow of some of his superpowers, and the metrics bear that out.
- Career low aDOT
- Career low in yards per completion when pressured
- Career low Passer Rating when throwing to the sidelines
Those aren’t things that normally happen to an ascending talent working with a strong supporting cast.
Even with the limitations, did you know that Burrow had five straight games with at least 24 completions and multiple passing scores (the first player to do so since Matt Ryan in the first half of the 2021 season)? If he’s capable of things like that in a down season with his health compromised, who are we to doubt Burrow in 2024?
Of course, Burrow’s health will need to be monitored. There have been some minor red flags presented this offseason that he’s still not a full go. If that remains the case leading into your draft, the position is deep enough to look elsewhere.
That said, the Bengals had no issue in putting their fate into the hands of a healthy Burrow in 2022 (second only to the Kansas City Chiefs in pass rate over expectation), which is all we can ask for as fantasy managers.
MORE: Fantasy Team Names | Fantasy League Names
Moving on from Joe Mixon and bringing back Tee Higgins tells me (for 2024, at the very least) that the general plan would be to again trust in the passing game to carry them. Cincinnati ranked dead last in yards per play allowed a season ago — a bad thing for the franchise, but an opportunity enhancer for those of us with Burrow exposure.
If you’re in the business of playing chess and not checkers, the Bengals, on an extended week, host a Denver Broncos defense that last season was bottom six in pressure rate, passer rating allowed, and opponent yards per pass attempt. Could Burrow save his best for the perfect time, Week 17?
I like Burrow’s profile, but I’m likely to let the room dictate if I land on him or not. His ADP tier is five quarterbacks long (Anthony Richardson, Jordan Love, Dak Prescott, and Kyler Murray), all of whom could explode this season.
I often find myself waiting until the first two members of this tier go before considering getting involved, and I usually try to wait as long as I can before jumping in. If I miss this tier, there are still interesting options later (Sleeper QB strategy), but I don’t want to overextend for the top of this grouping, as I view their mean projections as very similar.
Keep your eye on the reports, but don’t let last season distract you. Burrow is still very much the elite asset that we labeled him as entering the 2023 season. You’ll be able to get access to that upside at a discount this year.
Jason Katz’s Fantasy Insight on Joe Burrow
Burrow may not be much of a runner, but there are still plenty of reasons to like him. For starters, his ADP is multiple rounds lower than it was last season (now QB7, No. 63 overall).
It’s not as if Burrow’s situation got worse. Sure, he lost Joe Mixon, but that only tells me the Bengals are going to throw as much, if not more, than last season’s 63% neutral game script pass rate.
Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are still around, and Cincinnati added Jermaine Burton in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. There’s still a lot to like about Burrow this season.
What’s most interesting about Burrow’s price is not necessarily that he’s QB7 — I do think that’s fair. Rather, it’s how far below the QB6 he’s going.
You can get Burrow almost two rounds later than the guy above him, Anthony Richardson. I do have Burrow ranked as my QB8, lower than consensus, but I’m obviously not out on him entirely.
If I look down at the draft board and Burrow is my top remaining quarterback and no wide receivers or running backs excite me, I’d have no problem pushing the button on him. Burrow is one of the best QBs in the NFL, playing in what should be one of the best offenses in the league.