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    Joe Burrow Fantasy Profile: The Bengals QB Is Healthy and Cheaper Than Ever

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    Joe Burrow is coming off a lost season due to injury. Should fantasy managers expect him to return to being a top fantasy QB in 2024?

    It was a lost season in 2023 for Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow. Burrow’s preseason calf strain got his season started off on the wrong foot, and he was never able to truly recover.

    Now heading into 2024, Burrow isn’t being viewed quite as favorably as he was last year. Does this make him someone to target in fantasy football drafts?

    Should You Select Joe Burrow at His Current ADP?

    PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 58th Overall (QB7)

    • 2023 Recap: Burrow had a disappointing 2023 season, hampered by a preseason calf strain and a later wrist injury, which limited his effectiveness and ended his season in Week 11.
    • 2024 Outlook: Despite last year’s struggles, Burrow remains a high-upside quarterback, particularly since his current ADP is multiple rounds lower than in 2023. He’s now being drafted as the QB7 at 63rd overall.
    • Past Performance: At his peak, Burrow has averaged 20.5 and 21.7 fantasy points per game in 2021 and 2022, respectively, showcasing his potential when healthy.
    • Challenges: Unlike other elite fantasy QBs, Burrow doesn’t offer much in the running game. To match top-tier QBs, he needs to repeat or exceed his 4,500-yard, 34+ touchdown seasons, which may be difficult if the Bengals’ ground game becomes more involved.
    • Supporting Cast: Burrow still benefits from an elite receiving corps with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and the addition of Jermaine Burton. The Bengals are expected to maintain a high pass rate, especially with the departure of Joe Mixon.
    • Value Pick: Burrow’s ADP value is intriguing because he’s going nearly two rounds later than Anthony Richardson (QB6). While I have him ranked as my QB8, he still offers solid value if you’re looking for a reliable QB in the middle rounds.
    • Final Verdict: While Burrow may not deliver a league-winning performance, he’s poised to offer a solid return on investment, especially if he performs as expected in 2024. He’s a safe pick if you find him as the best available option on your draft board.

    PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Joe Burrow

    Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. 

    64) Rhamondre Stevenson, RB | New England Patriots
    65) Jaylen Warren, RB | Pittsburgh Steelers
    66) C.J. Stroud, QB | Houston Texans
    67) Dalton Kincaid, TE | Buffalo Bills
    68) Keenan Allen, WR | Chicago Bears
    69) Joe Burrow, QB | Cincinnati Bengals
    70) Evan Engram, TE | Jacksonville Jaguars
    71) Tank Dell, WR | Houston Texans
    72) Jonathon Brooks, RB | Carolina Panthers
    73) George Pickens, WR | Pittsburgh Steelers
    74) Kyler Murray, QB | Arizona Cardinals

    Joe Burrow’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Fantasy Season

    If you drafted Burrow last season, you certainly had a bad time. He was being viewed in the same echelon as the likes of Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson but instead averaged just 15.3 fantasy points per game.

    For the first month of the 2023 season, Burrow’s best game was 16.4 points. After that, he started to get healthy. We saw signs of vintage Burrow returning, as he posted 20+ fantasy points in four of his next five. Unfortunately, the injury bug struck again, this time to his wrist, and Burrow’s season ended in Week 11.

    We know what peak Burrow looks like. He averaged 20.5 and 21.7 fantasy points per game in 2021 and 2022, respectively. The problem with treating Burrow like an elite fantasy QB is it will be exceedingly difficult for him to do better than that.

    In the modern NFL, to be a truly elite fantasy QB, one has to run. It took over 4,500 yards and 34 and 36 touchdowns for Burrow to reach those numbers. Even a slight outlier season where touchdowns are weighted a little toward the ground game would likely push Burrow below 20 fantasy ppg.

    Is Burrow a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?

    Burrow may not be much of a runner, but there are still plenty of reasons to like him. For starters, his ADP is multiple rounds lower than it was last season (now QB7, No. 63 overall).

    It’s not as if Burrow’s situation got worse. Sure, he lost Joe Mixon, but that only tells me the Bengals are going to throw as much, if not more, than last season’s 63% neutral game script pass rate.

    Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are still around, and Cincinnati added Jermaine Burton in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. There’s still a lot to like about Burrow this season.

    What’s most interesting about Burrow’s price is not necessarily that he’s QB7 — I do think that’s fair. Rather, it’s how far below the QB6 he’s going.

    You can get Burrow almost two rounds later than the guy above him, Anthony Richardson. I do have Burrow ranked as my QB8, lower than consensus, but I’m obviously not out on him entirely.

    If I look down at the draft board and Burrow is my top remaining quarterback and no wide receivers or running backs excite me, I’d have no problem pushing the button on him. Burrow is one of the best QBs in the NFL, playing in what should be one of the best offenses in the league.

    While it’s unlikely Burrow will put together a league-winning season, if he merely does what he was expected to do last year, he’ll provide a positive return on investment for fantasy managers who remember just how good he is.

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