While his season ended prematurely, Joe Burrow did enough on the field to show his fantasy football value could eventually be among the NFL’s elite quarterbacks. As Burrow returns to the field following his torn ACL, what is his fantasy outlook for 2021, and should you consider him at his current ADP?
Joe Burrow’s fantasy outlook for 2021
It’s hard not to sit back and wonder what could have been for Burrow in 2020. Justin Herbert won the Offensive Rookie of the Year award, but if Burrow played all 16 games, he likely would have made a serious run for the title.
Unfortunately, in Week 10, his NFL and fantasy season came crumbling down due to a devastating knee injury which included a torn ACL, among other structural issues.
Burrow chose Dr. Neal Elattrache to perform the reconstructive surgery. His track record with several other athletes like Kobe Bryant, Tom Brady, Zack Greinke, and Klay Thompson speaks to his capability. From all reports, Burrow will be back and is “all systems go” for Week 1.
For fantasy, this is excellent news and should present a valuable opportunity amongst several Cincinnati Bengals players. Head coach Zac Taylor has shown he wants this to be a pass-first offense with Burrow under center. While they made some additions to the offensive line, including Riley Reiff, the most significant move was selecting Burrow’s former LSU WR Ja’Marr Chase at No. 5 overall in the 2021 NFL Draft.
Everything points towards a positive fantasy outlook for Burrow in 2021 and beyond as he aims to cement himself amongst the best QBs.
Fantasy projection
Burrow was on a torrent stride last season. At the time of his injury, he was on pace for 770 passing attempts. So much for taking it easy as a rookie.
Through Week 10, Burrow was the QB15 in fantasy (4-point TD), averaging 18.6 ppg. He completed 65.4% of his attempts for 2,688 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. His athleticism was also on display, rushing 37 times for 142 yards and 3 more scores.
Burrow’s numbers are even more impressive when you factor in the amount of duress he was under. The Bengals’ signal-caller was sacked 32 times, second-most at the time. Additionally, he was pressured on an absurd 24.1% of his dropbacks (109 times).
I do not expect to see him throw 770 times in 2021. However, I anticipate the Bengals to run around 64 plays per game. Of those, I expect them to pass approximately 60% of the time, resulting in 675 dropbacks. When you consider a still questionable offensive line, I expect around 630 passing attempts in my early run-through of projections.
Moreover, the offense should be more efficient. Despite leading the team with 31% of the air yards on 104 targets, A.J. Green had a 45.2% catch rate. Swapping him for Chase, who already has chemistry with Burrow, should significantly boost Burrow’s 0.37 fantasy points per attempt from 2020 — the top 32 fantasy QBs had an average of 0.45.
While expecting a heavy passing focus from the Bengals, a realistic fantasy projection for Burrow is a 67% completion rate, 4,300 passing yards, 31 total touchdowns, and 305 fantasy points (19.2 per game).
Joe Burrow’s fantasy ADP
According to Sleeper, Burrow is currently going off the board with an ADP of 111.2 in PPR formats. In superflex leagues, given the priority of quarterbacks, he rises to 37.4. According to Fleaflicker, Burrow has a 108.5 ADP.
Should you consider drafting Joe Burrow for fantasy in 2021?
While ACL tears scare us, and rightfully so, no two injuries are the same much like any rehab. If reports are accurate, Burrow should be good to go in 2021. It comes down to Burrow trusting his knee as it is his plant leg. Moreover, it’s vulnerable to a hit, whether from a defender or an offensive lineman being rolled back onto it. Yet, that risk goes for any player in the NFL. They are all, unfortunately, one snap away from a season being over.
It will be curious to see if there is any hesitation when Burrow scrambles since mobility is crucial for any fantasy QB.
With these caveats out of the way, I would not shy away from selecting Burrow as I believe his fantasy outlook aligns with his ADP. Still, he is in the range of other intriguing options. Players like Ryan Tannehill, Matthew Stafford, Jalen Hurts, and even Trevor Lawrence are going in the same area. Each player brings their own set of pros and cons to your fantasy team in 2021.
Burrow is a low-end QB1, high-end QB2 for fantasy in 2021. He is surrounded by talented playmakers and on a team likely to play from behind in most games. That’s a recipe for fantasy gold.