The Baltimore Ravens‘ RB situation continues to be tough for fantasy football managers to judge on a weekly basis. With J.K. Dobbins back alongside Gus Edwards, what is the fantasy outlook for the duo this week as they face the Cleveland Browns?
Let’s take a look at what we might expect to see from the Ravens’ RB pairing, what the matchup with the Browns looks like, and whether each Dobbins or Edwards is a starting option in Week 15.
What Are J.K. Dobbins’ and Gus Edwards’ Fantasy Outlooks in Week 15?
After being activated from injured reserve ahead of last week, Dobbins thrilled fantasy managers with his performance. Playing on 43% of the offensive snaps, he carried the ball 15 times for 120 yards and found the end zone once. It’s tough to ask for much more from Dobbins, but whether it’s an indicator of similar success going forward is a different matter.
This was only the second time that Dobbins has had more than 10 opportunities in a game, despite being the fourth time he has played over 40% of the offensive snaps. Back in Week 4, Dobbins carried the ball 13 times and saw four targets, as he posted 63 total yards and two touchdowns. However, the following week, he had just eight rushing attempts.
That has been the problem with the Ravens’ backfield all season. Edwards has been the only player to see double-digit opportunities on a regular basis. In four of his five games, Edwards has carried the ball more than 10 times, although he’s yet to have a reception.
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Last week, Edwards carried the ball 13 times but could only manage 6.6 fantasy points, despite averaging over five yards per rush attempt. That stat line very much sums up the concern for Ravens running backs. Of Edwards’ four games this year seeing double-digit touches, he has scored more than 10 fantasy points in half-PPR just twice. On both occasions, he found the end zone.
That emphasizes how important both targets and goal-line touches are for RBs in fantasy football. Without that boost provided by both of those elements, it can be tough for running backs to be consistent starting options unless they’re seeing at least 15 rushing attempts and in the region of 20 on a reasonably consistent basis.
Are the Browns a Favorable Matchup for RBs?
When you look across the whole season, the Browns appear to be one of the most favorable matchups for opposing RBs. Cleveland allows an average of 24.35 fantasy points per game to the position in half-PPR scoring, which is the fourth-highest number in the league.
However, in the last four weeks, the Browns have been much closer to average when it comes to fantasy points allowed to running backs. Their 19.53 fantasy points per game in that stretch rank marginally below average as the 18th-highest score allowed. Yet, that 19.53 average still leaves enough room for at least one RB to have starting value on average.
In the last four weeks, Cleveland has allowed fantasy returns of 25.3, 16.9, 14.1, and 21.8 fantasy points. Therefore, this matchup has the potential to be able to return value for both, but it is seemingly a legitimate 50-50 potential that that would be the case. Those are tough odds to manage in the first week of your fantasy playoffs.
Should Fantasy Managers Start Dobbins or Edwards in Week 15?
This is a really tough call this week with Dobbins and Edwards. The odds of them both ending the week with starting level scores are around 50% based on the different elements from the last four weeks. For that to happen, either one of them needs to see four or five targets, or both need to find the end zone.
The good news is that the Browns are one of the worst defenses in the league when it comes to allowing touchdowns in the run game. Their 17 rushing touchdowns allowed are tied for the fourth most in the league. However, 13 of those came in the first seven weeks at nearly an average of two per game. Since Week 8, the Browns’ defense has only allowed four rushing touchdowns in six games, for an average of 0.75 per game.
The last time the Ravens faced the Browns, in Week 7, Edwards rushed for two touchdowns along with 66 yards on 16 rushing attempts. Since then, Cleveland has only allowed 100 or more rushing yards in three of six games. In the last three games, they’ve given up an average of 104.7 rushing yards and 0.33 touchdowns per game.
Last week’s output of 136 rushing yards and a touchdown from the Bengals’ running backs demonstrates there is potential for RBs against the Browns’ defense. With that said, even with Samaje Perine being the one who found the end zone, his 22 rushing yards and two receiving yards on one reception meant he fell short of the 10-point threshold in half-PPR formats.
MORE: J.K. Dobbins Waiver Wire Week 15
Baltimore’s running backs should be more balanced than Cincinnati’s, but it’s hard to say start both with confidence. The problem is that it’s also hard to determine which one of the two to start. While Dobbins broke off some big runs, he appeared to lack confidence cutting at times, which could mean he sees a reduced workload.
PFN’s Senior Fantasy Analyst Tommy Garrett is backing Dobbins this week. He has Dobbins as the RB19 in his RB fantasy rankings for Week 15. Meanwhile, he has Edwards down at RB47. Personally, I’m a little lower on Dobbins, viewing him in the RB25-30 range, and a little higher on Edwards, placing him in the RB30-35 range this week.
If you’re looking to virtually lock yourself in five or six fantasy points in any scoring format, then Edwards is the safest one from that perspective. However, Dobbins’ explosive runs last week make him the option with the more exciting ceiling.
In Underdog Fantasy Best Ball drafts, both are worth consideration in the later rounds. We have seen both find the end zone on multiple occasions this year, and the Ravens should run the ball plenty this week.