J.K. Dobbins has been a productive fantasy football running back when he’s managed to stay on the field. The unfortunate truth is he simply hasn’t been able to stay healthy throughout his young career.
Does Dobbins still have viable upside in his first year with the Los Angeles Chargers in 2024?
Should You Select J.K. Dobbins at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 131st Overall (RB43)
- Injury Concerns: Dobbins has struggled to stay healthy throughout his career, missing significant time due to various injuries, including a torn Achilles in 2023 and a torn ACL in 2022.
- High Efficiency: Despite his injuries, Dobbins has been an efficient runner, averaging 5.8 yards per carry over his 234 career carries.
- Familiarity with Scheme: Dobbins has experience with Greg Roman’s offensive scheme from their time together in Baltimore, which could be an advantage in his first season with the Chargers under new head coach Jim Harbaugh.
- Competition in the Backfield: Dobbins faces competition from Gus Edwards, who had a career year in 2023, and rookie Kimani Vidal, who could carve out a role with a strong training camp.
- ADP Analysis: Dobbins’ current ADP in the 11th round (RB42) seems low given his talent. He’s being drafted after lesser-known players and significantly later than his backfield competitors, Edwards and Vidal.
- Final Verdict: While Dobbins’ injury history is a major concern, his potential upside in a wide-open Chargers backfield makes him a high-risk, high-reward pick. At his current ADP, he could be one of the best lottery tickets in fantasy drafts if he can stay healthy.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for J.K. Dobbins
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Dobbins is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus RB rankings instead.
48) Ty Chandler, RB | Minnesota Vikings
49) Kendre Miller, RB | New Orleans Saints
50) MarShawn Lloyd, RB | Green Bay Packers
51) Roschon Johnson, RB | Chicago Bears
52) Ray Davis, RB | Buffalo Bills
53) J.K. Dobbins, RB | Los Angeles Chargers
54) Jaylen Wright, RB | Miami Dolphins
55) Khalil Herbert, RB | Chicago Bears
56) Justice Hill, RB | Baltimore Ravens
57) Dameon Pierce, RB | Houston Texans
58) Elijah Mitchell, RB | San Francisco 49ers
J.K. Dobbins’ Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Dobbins’ start to the 2023 NFL season looked promising after scoring a touchdown in the campaign’s first quarter. Unfortunately, his promising start came to a devastating end after suffering a torn Achilles later in the opener — finishing his fourth season with just 37 yards and a score on 10 touches.
This tragic end to Dobbins’ 2023 season has mirrored many of the durability issues spanning his pro career.
Dobbins’ Games Missed by Season
- 2023: 16
- 2022: 9
- 2021: 17
- 2020: 1
This is shaping up to make Dobbins an unfortunate “what if” story, considering his career production suggests he is an efficient ball carrier. Over his 234 carries, the former Buckeye has averaged an outstanding 5.8 yards per carry.
This begs the question of who should be the leading ball carrier for the Chargers in 2024.
Dobbins intimately knows Greg Roman’s offensive scheme from their days together with the Baltimore Ravens. And new Los Angeles head coach Jim Harbaugh is well renowned for his commitment to running the football both in college and the NFL. These two factors work in favor of an optimistic view of Roman’s upside in this Chargers offense.
Working against Dobbins is the financial commitment the organization made to him and his former running mate in Baltimore, Gus Edwards. Dobbins received a one-year deal worth up to $1.6 million, while Edwards inked a two-year deal worth up to $6.5 million.
When Dobbins went down last year, Edwards had a career year, with 810 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns over 198 carries. Edwards doesn’t present the explosiveness or pass-catching upside of Dobbins, but his downhill, physical running style certainly fits this scheme.
Additionally, the Chargers added talented rookie Kimani Vidal on Day 3 of the 2024 NFL Draft. The former Troy Trojan had a very productive career and could make a case for a role in this offense with a strong training camp and preseason, though he’ll probably enter training camp as the third back on the depth chart.
Ultimately, Dobbins has proved he has the physical tools to be an effective ball carrier. Yet, his Achilles tear and a torn ACL suffered before the start of the 2022 season certainly cloud if Dobbins possesses the explosive playmaking ability we saw early in his career.
Is Dobbins a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Dobbins’ ADP at No. 130 overall in the 11th round (RB42) feels criminal in some regards, given the flashes of talent we’ve seen.
For some additional context, he’s currently being drafted after players like Blake Corum, Jerome Ford, and Chase Brown. No offense to those other players, but they are firmly behind a bell-cow back in their respective situations.
Even more surprising is that Dobbins is going five rounds later than Edwards and a full three rounds later than Vidal in fantasy drafts right now. The durability concerns are valid, but this Chargers’ backfield situation feels pretty wide open heading into the 2024 season.
If Dobbins can manage to stay healthy ( a big if), there’s an argument to be made he’s the most dynamic option Harbaugh has to spearhead this rushing attack. At this price point, he feels like one of the best lottery tickets in fantasy drafts.
