Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy is a very polarizing prospect with a wide variety of NFL Draft projections. With several NFL teams looking for a new quarterback, let’s take a look at which teams are most likely to draft McCarthy.
Current NFL Draft Odds for J.J. McCarthy’s Landing Spot
Odds courtesy of DraftKings and current as of April 10, 2024.
- Minnesota Vikings | +110
- New York Giants | +275
- Washington Commanders | +350
- New England Patriots | +350
- Denver Broncos | +650
- Las Vegas Raiders | +1000
- Seattle Seahawks | +1700
- Los Angeles Chargers | +4500
What Is McCarthy’s NFL Draft Projection?
It’s a bit of a surprise to see the Minnesota Vikings as the favorites to land McCarthy. While the projections for the Michigan product have been anywhere from late first round to No. 2 overall, when it’s all said and done, he should end up being the fourth quarterback off the board. With that said, he should be gone by the time the Vikings pick.
The most plausible path for Minnesota to draft McCarthy is via a trade-up in the opening round. It’s always risky betting on a trade to occur. It’s even riskier when the odds are as short as +110.
It’s interesting to see the New York Giants listed second, as it would still be a surprise if they took a quarterback in the first round. McCarthy is not going to make it to the Giants’ second pick. While they do need a franchise QB — Daniel Jones isn’t the answer — the Giants just don’t pick in a spot where they will be likely to land McCarthy.
The Washington Commanders are far more intriguing. Ultimately, the second and third quarterbacks off the board should end up being Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye in some order. However, it would not be a complete shock if McCarthy jumped one or both of them.
KEEP READING: Top QBs in the 2024 NFL Draft
If the Commanders do take McCarthy, they would likely do so at No. 2 overall. That seems high, but if he’s their second-ranked QB (behind Caleb Williams), they’re not going to take a quarterback they perceive as inferior simply because NFL Draft Twitter thinks they should.
Nevertheless, McCarthy’s odds of going to Washington are significantly shorter now than they were a month ago. Too much value has been lost to bet it now.
The New England Patriots are definitely in play to take McCarthy at No. 3, using the same logic applied to the Commanders. With the Mac Jones experiment failing and Jacoby Brissett serving as a bridge QB, they need a franchise QB. If they like McCarthy more than Daniels or Maye, whichever one falls to them, they could just go with their guy. It’s not the worst bet, but +350 is not good enough to get my endorsement.
Among the five teams with the shortest odds to take McCarthy, the Denver Broncos are easily the best bet, if you were to make one. With Jarrett Stidham currently atop the depth chart following their release of Russell Wilson, they badly need a new face under center.
GET DRAFTING: Free NFL Mock Draft Simulator With Trades
The hype surrounding McCarthy going early in the draft is heating up, but it may be noise. He could end up lasting deeper into the draft. At No. 12 overall, the Broncos should take McCarthy if he’s there. The big problem is the Vikings pick at No. 11, and if McCarthy falls that far, he’s probably not making it past Minnesota.
After the top five teams, the odds spike, evidencing the unlikeliness of any other team taking McCarthy. He may go somewhere unexpected, but even throwing a few dollars on an extreme long shot feels like a waste of money.
McCarthy’s Scouting Report
McCarthy is the fourth-ranked quarterback and 31st overall player on PFN’s NFL Draft Analyst Ian Cummings’ big board.
McCarthy is polarizing but also has an air of security with his winning ways, that may appeal to NFL coaches and evaluators. The speed of the NFL may require an acclimation period, but he’s a plus athlete with a live, elastic arm, efficient mechanics, and the ability to work an offense in structure and on schedule.