San Francisco 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo’s role, along with his fantasy football outlook, could take a drastic hit in 2021. The only remaining question is when. As we head into the new season with no definitive answer, is there any potential upside to drafting Garoppolo at his current ADP in fantasy football?
Jimmy Garoppolo’s fantasy outlook for 2021
The 49ers’ QB situation feels like one of the 43 different dating shows on TV. Two people are vying for the heart of one person, and even though we all know who is going to win, they keep dragging it out far too long. That’s what is happening with the competition between Garoppolo and rookie Trey Lance. At some point, it’s going to be Lance. Until then, we have to look at what the 49ers will be with Garoppolo under center.
I mean, it’s not to say he has been bad. After all, Jimmy G is 24-9 as a starter (including playoffs), 11th in QBR (98.1), and second in yards per attempt (8.3). However, in four seasons with the 49ers, Garoppolo has only played one full season. The other three seasons were cut short due to injury, including last year.
Garoppolo only played in six games in 2020. He completed 67.1% of his passes for 1,096 yards with 7 touchdowns to 5 interceptions. For fantasy, he was the QB39 overall and 37th in fantasy points per game at 11.3. Interestingly, Garoppolo was QB20 in points per attempt (0.44), which speaks more to the capability of his pass-catching options.
He has never been a massive fantasy contributor despite being surrounded by talent and one of the brilliant minds in the coaching ranks. Since joining the 49ers, Garoppolo has finished as a QB1 in only 32% of his games (31) and as a QB25 or worse in 29%. Furthermore, he has been inactive for 45% (24) of possible contests.
The veteran QB only has value early on in 2021
If Garoppolo will have any fantasy value, it’s going to be early in the season, assuming Kyle Shanahan wants to give Lance more time to prepare. The 49ers didn’t trade three first-round selections to leap to the No. 3 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft for nothing. Even when on the field, Garoppolo brings little upside to fantasy managers. You might have to wait a few weeks, but the only 49ers QB I would target in drafts is Lance.
Fantasy projection
When creating projections, you have to decide on a narrative. What is a particular player’s role, and how many weeks until we see a change happen in the case of a competition? That’s what we run into here. For Garoppolo, Lance, and any 49ers player for that matter, it all comes down to when the change under center happens. Once it does, this offense is going to go from 0-100 quickly.
Lance has arguably the highest upside of any of the rookie QBs. It’s simply a matter of time until the switch occurs. Garoppolo has just as good of a chance to decide for Shanahan — he is one injury away from losing his job. But as of right now, Garoppolo is the QB1.
However, Shanahan has stated that Lance will see snaps. “That doesn’t mean he’s going to be the starter or anything,” Shanahan said. “But he’s going to get plays.” If that’s the case, it might not take long if Lance impresses on the field.
It is important to remember that the 49ers were decimated by injuries last season, not only on defense but also at skill positions. George Kittle played in only eight games, Deebo Samuel missed nine games, and Brandon Ayiuk missed four. If they can stay healthy this year, whoever is under center will have success.
While it could happen sooner, I have the switch happening around Week 5. With that in mind, current projections have Garoppolo slated for around 175 attempts, 1,350 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions.
Jimmy Garoppolo’s ADP
According to Sleeper, Garoppolo is currently the QB34 with an ADP of 271.1 in half PPR formats. In superflex leagues, where quarterbacks have increased value, he has a 170.2 ADP. Similarly, on NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Garoppolo is the QB33 with a 224.5 ADP. On Fleaflicker he is the QB31 with an ADP of 223.
Should you draft Garoppolo for fantasy in 2021?
It’s hard to see any reason to draft Garoppolo in 2021. Even in a superflex league as a QB3, his window to hold value is extremely short. If you were drafting him as a bye week fill-in, you would need him to be the starting QB until at least Week 7. Because San Francisco is in the first cycle of byes in Week 6, followed by the “Bye-pocalypse” in Week 7 (six teams).
Personally, I do not see him holding the job by then. Even if he does, there are better options with more upside. The only reason to draft him is if you previously selected Lance, who is going as the QB20. This would guarantee you the 49ers’ starting QB barring catastrophic circumstances.