If you’re playing a New York Jets vs. New England Patriots DFS lineup for Sunday in Week 8, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Jets Considerations
This game features two teams in relative turmoil. For New York, that includes Breece Hall’s season-ending injury, Corey Davis’s less-serious injury, and Elijah Moore wanting to jump ship after only 17 professional games. Pretty sure this team would rather be 4-3 with everyone healthy and happy and moving forward together than be 5-2 with a still-developing QB and a ravaged backfield.
Ah, but wait: they traded for James Robinson. That’s a start, and it also complicates things a bit as we discern which DFS approach might work best in a matchup with as many as 14 realistic 10+ point scorers.
MORE: Week 8 NFL Picks and Predictions
For the Jets, that includes their remaining healthy, active wideouts and collection of tight ends. It also includes three RBs, all the way down to Ty Johnson, who might or might not get a little run if Robinson isn’t ready for a mid-sized load.
Then there’s New York’s much-improved defense, along with the sixth-best fantasy kicker. For context, the Jets haven’t had a top-25 kicker since 2018. So betting on Greg Zuerlein actually makes some sense if his price is right.
Patriots Considerations
Thoughts on New England DFS bargains hinge partly on Damien Harris’s status. Earlier this week, I outlined why the team probably will trade Harris before next Tuesday’s deadline and where might end up. Or, Harris could remain a Patriots and then walk after this season — a season that might result in a below-.500 record.
Whatever happens, Rhamondre Stevenson certainly has earned the 1A role going into Week 8. But can we afford to pay such a steep price for an RB who could lose plenty of touches to Harris?
And then there’s the QB situation. I wrongly recommended Mac Jones in my Week 7 Patriots-Bears DFS slate, thinking there was no reasonable way he’d be benched in a game New England surely would win. But is Bailey Zappe any better? I get it: the rookie can sling it. And he’s also mistake-prone. That’s a no-no in this storied town.
Since the Jets’ pass D has played well, we have to weigh the costs and benefits of starting not only a Patriot QB but also one or more of their receivers. While Jakobi Meyers and DeVante Parker have the edge over the other pass-catchers, there are at least four other capable mouths to feed. In a run-friendly offense, that leads to plenty of low ceilings.
Top DFS Lineup for Jets vs. Patriots
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: RB Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots ($15,900)
First, this is a complex slate. It’s threading the needle based on the belief that both defenses will step up, both running games will be at least “very good,” and the Jets will be forced to work more in the passing game.
Stevenson brings the most reliable value, so I’m recommending him in the Captain slot. His passing-game usage should keep his floor high, and he’s a weekly touchdown threat.
Flex: QB Zach Wilson, Jets ($9,600)
Why recommend a still inexperienced QB with only two touchdowns in four contests? Because without Hall, I believe Zach Wilson will be forced to run more, as well as dump off more to his catch-friendly backfield. Don’t judge him based on tough road matchups in Green Bay and Denver. He’s a good bet for 14+ DFS points on Sunday.
Flex: RB Michael Carter, Jets ($9,000)
While not excited about this pick, I think it’s necessary. James Robinson might not get much work in his first game as a Jet. Ty Johnson offers fringe value. Carter might not get more than 40 yards on the ground, but I believe 40+ through the air is realistic.
Flex: WR Garrett Wilson, Jets ($6,400)
Whatever we think will happen doesn’t always happen. We all know this. Garrett Wilson has been stymied for weeks. Given the thinning of this offense and his unquestioned talent, if we believe his QB will step up (as I do), then his rookie receiver should, too.
As always, last week’s stats are bunk, unless they’re not. Understanding the difference is the key to understanding probabilities for dramatic improvements or regressions.
Flex: Patriots D/ST ($4,600)
We could go with the slightly cheaper Nick Folk instead. But when weighing Folk’s chances at hitting 12+ points, I believe the Pats are more likely to get there, thanks to a reasonable shot at a defensive or special-teams touchdown. It might not look pretty (i.e. they might give up 20+ point to the Jets), but I like the Pats’ sack and turnover prospects.
Flex: Jets D/ST ($4,400)
Of course. Or maybe not “of course.” But the Jets’ D has stepped up dramatically since the opening weeks of the season. In fact, since yielding 30 points to the Browns in Week 2, they’ve given up progressively fewer points in each game.