The New York Jets will face the Houston Texans in Week 9. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Jets skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 9 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Aaron Rodgers, QB
Are we chasing a ghost in assuming that Aaron Rodgers is anything other than ordinary? Might that be overshooting it?
If not for his résumé, Rodgers’ 2024 profile wouldn’t be on our radar at all. He’s been Bo Nix if you remove Nix’s most valuable asset (his legs).
- 2024 Rodgers: 61.6% completion percentage, 85.1 passer rating, 1.7 TD/INT
- 2024 Nix: 63.2% completion percentage, 81.4 passer rating, 1.6 TD/INT
In the two games since the Davante Adams trade, Rodgers has completed 61.2% of his passes with a 1.5 touchdown-to-interception rate (Weeks 1-6: 61.8% completion percentage, 1.8 touchdown-to-interception) — nothing has changed for this instant fix trade.
On the bright side, Rodgers is distributing his passes how we’d like (Week 8: Garrett Wilson and Adams accounted for 52.9% of Jets receptions and 71.7% of their receiving yards), but the fantasy production simply hasn’t been there, and I’m not sure that changes in this spot.
"I've been in the darkness. You've got to go in there, make peace with it."
Aaron Rodgers was asked if this was a moment of darkness for the Jets and how to get out of it: pic.twitter.com/Cv7SjGHaAR
— Jets Videos (@snyjets) October 27, 2024
The Texans allow the fourth-fewest red-zone trips per game (2.5), placing an even greater value on efficiency that Rodgers has yet to show us given the slow nature of New York’s offense. In Weeks 1-4, Houston created pressure on 31% of non-blitzed dropbacks, a rate that ranked 18th. Since, however, that percentage is up to 36.8% (ninth), and Rodgers completed 13 of 32 pressured passes in October.
I’m probably late to the party here, but I’m done fearing Rodgers in any capacity.
Breece Hall, RB
Would I love to get Breece Hall past 16 carries (something he’s done just once this season)? Of course, but there’s enough explosion in his profile to pay off regardless, and we get an example every week of Aaron Rodgers trusting Hall down the field as a route runner (last week, we saw a chunk gain by way of DPI).
That role, to me, is that of a huge performance in waiting. It could happen this week on short rest against the third-worst red-zone defense in the NFL. I’m not calling for it, but fantasy managers should feel good about their RB1’s outlook this week and for the second half of the season.
Braelon Allen, RB
Can’t anything in New York be simple? Early in the season, this backfield looked like a budding committee, but then it appeared that Breece Hall was poised to fill the role we assumed he would when we drafted this summer.
Allen’s snap shares:
- Week 4 vs. Denver Broncos: 34.3%
- Week 5 at Minnesota Vikings: 25.4%
- Week 6 vs. Buffalo Bills: 18.6%
- Week 7 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: 9.1%
- Week 8 at New England Patriots: 33.3%
The seemingly random spike in the rookie’s usage was by design, as Allen was on the field for half of their first-quarter offensive snaps. With the Jets averaging just 16.6 points per game during this five-game losing streak, this offensive pie simply isn’t big enough for a shared backfield.
For me, Allen remains a Tier 1 RB handcuff and nothing more.
Davante Adams, WR
DeAndre Hopkins and Amari Cooper were eased into their new situations post-trade, a ramp-up period that Adams didn’t need given his familiarity with Aaron Rodgers (94.6% snap share in his two weeks with the squad).
He may not have needed time to digest the playbook, but it’s clear that he needs time to find his form. In those two games, he’s turned 15 targets into just 15.4 PPR fantasy points. I think it’s pretty easy to assume that better times are ahead, though the 8.4-yard aDOT is interesting.
Davante Adams lined up as the backside WR in a 3×1 twice vs the #Patriots, with both snaps coming on NYJ's opening drive in H2
Christian Gonzalez (bottom) smothered two slants from Adams, forcing Rodgers off his initial read the first time, then breaking up a pass on 3rd & 1 https://t.co/DiRe4WxocY pic.twitter.com/YGlKajfDXn
— Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) October 28, 2024
Part of what made the Rodgers/Adams connection special was their unspoken communication down the field and in scoring situations. I don’t doubt that they still have it, but we’ve yet to see it. Adams is a middling WR2 until proven otherwise, especially if it’s going to be Garrett Wilson as the featured option when it comes to field stretching.
Garrett Wilson, WR
The addition of Davante Adams was certainly a blow to Wilson’s ceiling, but it doesn’t undo the foundational connection that seems to have been laid between him and Aaron Rodgers. Last week, he hauled in a 35-yard pass despite being interfered with and saw his first three catches gain over 25 yards.
Wilson isn’t going to be the target vacuum we expected him to be entering this season, but Rodgers is looking his way consistently deep down the field. That creates a nice weekly ceiling in the right spots.
Is this one of those spots?
I think so. No defense has seen opponents average a higher depth of throw to receivers than the Texans (13.6 yards). Factoring into that trend is the fact that Houston has been increasingly likely to blitz despite limited success (20th in pressure rate when bringing an extra defender).
Wilson carries a similar risk to players in the middle of my WR2 tier (Marvin Harrison Jr. and Amari Cooper, for example), but I’d argue that his big-play profile in this spot gives him the edge in ceiling outcomes over players of that ilk.
Allen Lazard, WR
A chest injury resulted in Allen Lazard sitting last week. We shouldn’t be surprised that he is dinged up, as Lazard has completed just one season (2019) from start to finish in his NFL career.
Could he return on a short work week against an average defense? It’s possible, but nothing I saw from Lazard’s usage in Adams’ debut with the team suggested that he should be rostered, let alone Flexed.
In Week 7, Lazard’s on-field target share fell from 17.3% to 16%, and his slot rate from 41.6% to 28.1%. I’d imagine those rates only decline further with time, and that’s assuming full health.
If you wanted to play the “Aaron Rodgers trusts him” narrative and overlook a dip in scoring equity or layup targets, I might bite. But without both seemingly evaporating, you’re chasing what has happened with Lazard this season as opposed to projecting forward.
We get back into the bye-week flow this week, which is going to result in some roster decisions. For my money, if you’re playing Lazard, you’re desperate, and if you’re desperate, why not bet on a player like Gabe Davis (big-play threat with Christian Kirk out for the season) or Cedric Tillman moving forward?
Tyler Conklin, TE
Conklin caught a two-yard touchdown pass in traffic on Sunday and now has an end-zone target in three of his past four games. Of course, there is a low floor to consider here (three straight games with under five targets and four games this season with no more than 10 receiving yards), but it is clear that Aaron Rodgers trusts him as the end zone comes into focus.
I’m betting against Conklin long-term, but for now, he’s a viable option with the role inside the 20. The Texans are allowing a league-high 6.3% of short passes to result in touchdowns — that is where this big tight end can win. Conklin is near the top of my touchdown-or-bust options at the position. That makes him the type of tight end I stream in a good spot and replace the following week.