The New York Jets will face the Buffalo Bills in Week 17. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Jets skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 17 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Aaron Rodgers, QB
I went on a bit of a rant last week about why Aaron Rodgers’ heater was unlikely to extend into Week 16 and it worked out!
The future Hall of Famer wasn’t a top-20 QB after consecutive top-12 finishes at the position. If you’re betting on a rebound this week, I think it’s a bet on this run game, and while I won’t come out as strong as last week, I think that’s dangerous.
Back in Week 6, Rodgers had 294 yards with two touchdowns and one interception against the Bills, a production level you’d likely sign up for this time around if asked. In that performance, he had seven play-action completions totaling 131 yards, plays that were made possible by a successful running attack (21 carries for 121 yards). The question is if they can repeat that level of success on the ground in order to open the passing game up.
Buffalo can be had on the ground if you can remain competitive, so the matchup in that regard isn’t too scary. My concern is the Jets themselves and their trajectory. If you exclude the Week 15 games in Jacksonville, understanding that the Jaguars aren’t exactly the shining example of even an average NFL franchise, here are New York’s recent yards-per-carry numbers.
I’ve got Rodgers ranked in the Patrick Mahomes (at PIT) and C.J. Stroud (vs. BAL) tier — interestingly enough, a spot in which you don’t want to be. I’m looking for any excuse I can find to play someone else, and that includes taking a ride on the Anthony Richardson rollercoaster (at NYG).
Braelon Allen, RB
That was fun while it lasted. Braelon Allen is an interesting young player, and the thought was that he could see some extended work down the stretch of this lost season. Unfortunately, that doesn’t appear to be the case:
Week 16 NYJ RB Usage
- Breece Hall: 79.4% snaps, 6 targets, 14 PPR points
- Braelon Allen: 12.7% snaps, 1 target, 2 PPR points
- Isaiah Davis: 12.7% snaps, 0 targets, 1.2 PPR points
You can safely cut ties with all non-Hall backs in New York. Allen will be a Tier 1 handcuff next season, but for the fantasy playoffs, he adds no value to your roster.
Breece Hall, RB
Breece Hall was RB13 or better in three straight games to open the season, and most of us figured it was wheels up for a big season.
However, that hasn’t proven to be the case, as he has just three finishes better than RB18 since that initial burst. At the very least, as mentioned above, we saw him reassume his role as the lead man in this backfield – that makes him playable, even if none of his 14 carries gained more than seven yards last week.
In an underwhelming statistical performance against the Rams, Hall still had his moments. He took a dump-off pass on a critical third down in the second half and wedged between defenders to move the chains. The impact ended up being minimal, but it’s plays like that that help explain the long-term optimism.
The Jets gave him 23 touches in Week 6 against these Bills, and he rewarded them with 169 yards from scrimmage. I don’t think we get a repeat performance, but Buffalo certainly encourages its opponents to run and/or check down, putting Hall in a position to be an RB2 at worst. I think he comes loaded with RB1 upside.
Davante Adams, WR
Davante Adams has four straight games with 65+ receiving yards and a touchdown catch — only three receivers have had a longer such streak at age 30 or older (Terrell Owens, Cris Carter, and Muhsin Muhammad).
First of all, drink up if you bet against a Muhsin Muhammad mention in the year 2024. It took a while, but we got there. More importantly, let’s put some respect on this profile. The counting numbers look great over that run, and the closer you look, the better they get.
He has six end zone targets across those four contests and has been targeted on 41.7% of his red-zone routes, a rate that is unheard of for a player at this stage in his career. The Bills are a lot of things, but an elite red-zone unit isn’t one of them (18th), and that gives Adams enough scoring equity to be started across the board, even if you think this is a lopsided affair.
In Week 6, Aaron Rodgers funneled half of his targets to his two top receivers, and both were top-five producers at the position for the week (Allen Lazard and Garrett Wilson both cleared 100 yards and scored). I’m not forecasting production at quite that level, but both of his top threats should see plenty of looks in a favorable game script, and that’s more than enough for me.
Garrett Wilson, WR
Garrett Wilson is a tough read these days. In Week 15, he was used as a field stretcher (16.5 aDOT) next to a productive Davante Adams, but last weekend, also alongside a strong Adams game, his average depth of target was a mere 6.9 yards.
I’m choosing to read that in multiple ways. Most importantly, it confirms the hierarchy of this receiver room—New York wants to get Adams going and will give Wilson the remaining routes, putting him in a less advantageous spot.
That’s the bad. The good is that they are confident that he can fill a variety of roles and that Aaron Rodgers has thrown the ball his way 33 times so far in December. It was a different offense back in Week 6, but Wilson was responsible for 34.8% of New York’s receptions, and that’s not a bad thing, even if Adams wasn’t on the roster.
I’ve got Wilson sitting just outside of my top 20 at the position, ranking in the Brian Thomas Jr. and DeVonta Smith tier.
Tyler Conklin, TE
In his first game as a father, Tyler Conklin caught five passes (his most since Week 5) and increased his expected point total for a fourth straight game.
Baby swag?
Doubt it.
While he is constantly on the field, I’m going to need to see more evidence that he is a capable target earner at this level before assuming it. Before last week, Conklin was averaging a reception once every 11.6 routes this season. Let’s do some quick, back-of-the-napkin math.
- Jets offense: 39.2 dropbacks per game
- Bills defense: 37.8 opponent dropbacks per game
- Conklin’s season: 83.8% snap share
Take the average of the first two and apply Conklin’s season rate and we are looking at 32-33 routes. Based on his rates before Sunday, that leads to a sub-three-catch projection, and that’s a fade in all formats for me.