The New York Jets will face the Los Angeles Rams in Week 16. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Jets skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 16 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Aaron Rodgers, QB
Oh, buddy.
I get a hard time for my, let’s say, lack of word efficiency. If I were creating a résumé based on how I write, I’d flip that weakness into a strength and label it as an “unbridled work ethic that will stop at nothing to provide the most detailed and well-thought-out analysis.” But I get it, and you’re right.
More is more in my head when it comes to writing. Ask any boss I’ve worked for, ask my wife, ask my hot water-heater guy that I’m bouncing this Aaron Rodgers profile off of right now.
I’m wordy. Sue me.
For Rodgers, it’s deserving. My hunch is that you’ve seen the clips of him throwing Davante Adams open, racking up 600+ yards over a two-week Florida spin, and generally playing with a smile on his face. That’s all great and maybe you took a flier on him at the beginning of the month and are benefiting in a major way.
Great. Love that for you.
Aaron Rodgers over the last 2 weeks:
💥 628 yards
💥 4 TDs
💥 0 INTsDavante Adams over the last 2 weeks:
💥 18 receptions
💥 307 yards
💥 3 TDsWe're seeing this duo at the level we always hoped to see 🥹#Jets pic.twitter.com/LJhyT1UBG2
— Harrison Glaser (@NYJetsTFMedia) December 16, 2024
But does any of that production get you a win in Week 16? Not in my leagues, so let’s evaluate this week as its own entity.
This season, 39.1% of Rodgers’ touchdown passes have come from outside the red zone, an unsustainably high rate. The league average trends around 70%, and while Rodgers doesn’t have to apologize for the chunk plays resulting in touchdowns, it’s not the easiest thing to continue doing at any point, let alone as the weather flips.
Counting on those scores becomes even more difficult against a Rams defense. Los Angeles hasn’t allowed a touchdown pass from outside the red zone in four of its past six games and in seven of 11 after a slow start. They also happen to grade out as the sixth-best red-zone defense in the NFL, so banking on red-zone touchdown pass regression for Rodgers isn’t exactly a safe bet, either.
There’s more.
In Aaron Donald’s last Defensive Player of the Year season (2020), the Rams created pressure on 44.2% of blitzes. That’s a strong mark that ranked sixth that season, with the Chiefs leading the way at 49.8%.
The Rams currently sit at 50%. Now we are onto something. Since the beginning of 2022, Rodgers has thrown a touchdown on 3.4% of such (pressured while blitzed) attempts. I assume you need context on that rate, and I’m nothing if not a man of the people.
- NFL average: 4.8%
Need more? Fine, needy reader. The almighty quartet of Aidan O’Connell, Gardner Minshew II, Mac Jones, and Daniel Jones have a 3.5% pass touchdown rate over that stretch.
Not pretty.
Rodgers has been absurdly productive over the past two weeks in play-action situations (19.9 yards per completion and 11.6 yards per attempt), but why fake the run if it’s not being stopped?
Through 15 weeks, against running backs, the Rams rank 22nd in rushing TD rate inside the five-yard line, 25th in EPA, and 26th in third-down conversion rate.
With freezing temperatures expected at MetLife with some wind to consider, looking for a 41-year-old to sustain the excellence he showed in sunny Florida recently is optimistic.
So, yeah, the fact that Rodgers has thrown for more yards in consecutive second halves than he did in any of his three full games prior is a fun and accurate stat. I want to see discount double-check celebrations at the end of a lost season as much as anyone, but there’s not a chance I’m putting the fate of my fantasy season in Rodgers’ hands in this ultra-specific spot.
Braelon Allen, RB
The hope was that we would get a Bucky Irving-type late-season spurt from Braelon Allen, but that narrative was halted in a hurry. For some reason, the team opted to play Breece Hall last week, and that relegated Allen to a bench role.
The talented rookie was on the field for just 18.5% of offensive snaps, his third-lowest rate of the season and a role that resulted in just two opportunities. Allen may fill a role as a top-five handcuff next season, and that’ll be roster-worthy, but you can move on for a player with a more immediate role upside for right now.
Breece Hall, RB
Breece Hall returned from a knee injury and was essentially the leader of a full-blown committee.
Not ideal.
Four different Jets handled New York’s first four carries last week, and that’s a problem. I still have Hall labeled as the leader in this backfield, and that makes him a Flex option when you consider the matchup (LAR: sixth-worst points per drive defense).
He averaged 4.6 yards per carry for his career with a 75.3% catch rate. He’s certainly not the lead back we were hoping for back in September, but I think you can still get away with playing him this weekend.
Isaiah Davis, RB
Isaiah Davis is a fifth-round pick out of South Dakota State who has seen his usage increase lately. His 19 touches over the past two weeks are interesting but not impactful in terms of how I’m approaching Week 16.
At the end of the day, he’s more of a drain on Breece Hall/Braelon Allen than a threat to realistically be ranked as a viable option. This recent Aaron Rodgers heater impacts his two star receivers and leaves a committee backfield feeding on the scraps.
Davante Adams, WR
It only took all season, but we FINALLY got the vintage version of Davante Adams that we’ve been starved for. The instances over the past 10 years in which a player had 190 receiving yards and multiple receiving touchdowns in a single half:
- Davante Adams on Sunday vs. the Jaguars
- Ja’Marr Chase in Week 10 vs. the Ravens
- Tyreek Hill in 2020 vs. the Bucs
- Odell Beckham Jr. in 2016 vs. the Ravens
The Week 15 performance was about as perfect as it gets. He even got you a bonus point — he had a touchdown correctly overturned (down at the one-yard line) and followed it up with a score on the next play, getting you two receptions and a score for the price of one!
Adams has seen six end-zone targets over his past five games and has seen at least 11 balls thrown his way in five of six. If you’ve managed to get to this point with Adams on your roster, you’re in a good spot.
You also have support. I have Adams in a dynasty league that is in the semifinals — let’s see if we can piece together a late-season run for the ages!
Garrett Wilson, WR
With Davante Adams breaking out last week, Garrett Wilson posted his first game this season with single-digit expected PPR points (9.7). Even if you think that all is right in New York, that Aaron Rodgers has found himself, and that the vintage connection with Adams is sticky for the short term, you’re still playing Wilson as a fine WR2.
In Adams’ last strong Packer season, Robert Tonyan caught 11 touchdown passes, and I’ve long said “What is Garrett Wilson but a rich man’s Robert Tonyan?”
It’s getting overlooked because of the historic second half from Adams, but Week 15 started with all three of Rodgers’ first-drive passes going in the direction of Wilson (41 yards, TD).
The Rams are a bottom-10 defense when it comes to defending the deep ball in yards per attempt, yards per completion, interception rate, and touchdown percentage — Wilson is in a position to make a single target or two count in a significant way if you’re fearing his overall volume.
I’m not sold on the Jets being a juggernaut, but I’m not benching either of their top receivers.
Tyler Conklin, TE
Tyler Conklin was inactive last week as he and his wife welcomed their first child into the world on Saturday night. There’s no health reason for him to not be with the team this week, but you can safely ignore the status of New York’s TE1.
Aaron Rodgers is looking at two players and two players only. Against the Jags, Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson caught all three of his touchdown passes while accounting for 87.9% of his passing yards. Jeremy Ruckert got the start at tight end and did his best Conklin impression by turning three targets into 12 yards.
You can disagree with my novel on Rodgers, but I’d have to be really wrong for Conklin’s role to spike to that of a usable rate.