The New York Jets have seen their playoff chances decrease drastically after losing each of their last three games. Having slid to 7-7, the Jets’ playoff odds are significantly longer than they were after defeating the Chicago bears back in Week 12. Heading into their Week 16 Thursday Night Football game, what are the Jets’ playoff chances, and how does their remaining schedule shape up?
What Are the New York Jets Playoff Odds Entering Week 16?
The Jets’ playoff odds differ slightly across different sportsbooks but are generally in the +350 to +450 region. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Jets head into Week 16 with a 20% chance of making the playoffs. Additionally, the Jets do not have their future in their own hands when it comes to making the playoffs.
The reason for the Jets having such outside odds is that they are on the outside looking in when it comes to the Week 16 playoff picture. They are four games behind the Bills, with just three games to play, so they have been eliminated from division contention. Meanwhile, at 7-7, they are one game behind the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers, who are both 8-6.
What Are the Jets’ Playoff Chances Based on the Rest of Their Schedule?
With a victory in Week 16, the Jets’ playoff chances would rise to 34%. However, a loss would see those chance slip to just 7% ahead of the rest of Week 16. If they lose this week, the Jets will require a lot of help to get into the playoffs. A loss this week, followed by two victories, would give the Jets just a 51% chance of making the playoffs. That would very much leave them depending on other results to get in.
While this week’s game is important, the key game appears to be their matchup with the Dolphins in Week 18. Even if the Jets win the next two weeks, a loss against the Dolphins in Week 18 would leave them with a 17% chance of making the playoffs. If the Jets win all three of their games, and Miami wins in Weeks 16 and 17, the Jets would make the playoffs, regardless of any other results around the league.
MORE: Week 16 NFL Playoff Clinching Scenarios
Even if the Dolphins lose their next two games and the Jets win their next two, that Week 18 game is important. In that event, if the Jets beat the Dolphins in Week 18, they would have a 98% chance of making the playoffs. If the Dolphins were to win in Week 18, they would have a 52% chance of making the playoffs, while the Jets would have just a 6% chance, per FiveThirtyEight.
Intriguingly, if the Jets were to lose to the Dolphins in Week 18, it actually hurts them if the Dolphins lose against the Patriots in Week 17.
If the Jets win out, then they only need the Patriots to lose one game to be assured of a playoff spot. With the Patriots facing the Bengals, Dolphins, and Bills, that would seem reasonably likely. The scenario in which the Jets do not make the playoffs despite winning out would require both the Patriots and Chargers to win out and the Ravens to win just one of their final three games.