The New York Jets (-1, 46) will travel to take on the Arizona Cardinals in Week 10.
Below are our final picks for the game, which include contributions from Chief Content Officer David Bearman, Analyst Kyle Soppe, and/or Analyst Jason Katz.
Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Nov. 7, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise. If you’re looking for other games, check out our final NFL Week 10 Picks and Predictions for the entire slate.
Pick: James Conner Anytime TD
(Jason Katz) I haven’t dabbled in any touchdown props in a few weeks. But we’re making a return, as Conner’s line does not accurately reflect his likelihood of scoring.
What would this line be had Conner scored twice last week?
Because he should have.
The Cardinals got inside the two-yard line twice. The first time, Trey McBride scored a rushing touchdown. You won’t see that every week.
Conner got them there the second time, but on the play that did, he landed hard and was sent to the blue tent. Trey Benson punched in what certainly would have been Conner’s touchdown on the next play.
The Jets are a bottom-third run defense. Over their last three games, they’re allowing the seventh-most rushing yards.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals have been quite run-heavy this season. Their 49% neutral game script run rate is the seventh-highest in the league.
The Jets are allowing 1.2 rushing touchdowns per game. Conner has been playing some of the best football of his career and is the clear goal-line back when he’s not getting checked for injuries. After scoring in three of his first four games, he’s only run in one touchdown since. Dare I say Conner is due? I would play this to -115.
Pick: Cardinals +1.5
(David Bearman) The media or sportsbooks can’t get these two teams right. The Jets are continuously overvalued in the betting markets despite three wins in nine games, including wins over the terrible Patriots, Titans, and depleted Texans. One primetime win against a Texans team missing multiple WRs, and all is well in New Jersey. People must have forgotten the five-game losing skid.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals are leading the NFC West and looking mighty good. Last week, they thrashed the Bears by 20 points, followed by wins over the AFC’s Dolphins and Chargers, and they also have wins against the Niners and Rams.
To show you how much the Jets have been overvalued, especially on the road, they have failed to cover the last three road games by a total of -38. The Cardinals should win this game outright at home.
Pick: Over 46
(Kyle Soppe) I imagine I don’t have to sell you on the Aaron Rodgers resurgence thing. If I do, he directed 65.6% of his targets last week to either Garrett Wilson or Davante Adams and now gets the benefit of facing a defense that allows points on 47.1% of drives (third highest, better than only Atlanta and Carolina).
But what about the other side? The Jets own the second-highest pressure rate in the league (41.1%), and while that would have me treading with caution in most spots, Kyler Murray is an exception. Through nine weeks, Murray ranks sixth in passer rating when heated up (better than Jared Goff) and 17th when not (worse than Derek Carr).
If Murray is going to put his receivers in a good spot through the air, everything else opens up. Overs is 9-4-1 in his last 14 starts with a total that closes over 45, and that should continue in this specific spot.
Jets. vs Cardinals Week 10 Promo Codes
Be sure to check out all the latest Sportsbooks promos. If you are already signed up with a book or aren’t interested, continue to scroll down for our picks.
Note that sportsbook promo codes will only appear if you are in a legalized area. If you’re in a location that has not legalized sports betting, you’ll see a list of top fantasy sports operators, which are available in most states.
Jets vs. Cardinals Game Stats and Insights
New York Jets
Team: New York is allowing the second-fewest yards per pass after the completion this season (4.4, league average: 5.3).
QB: The Jets own the highest red zone pass rate in the league this season (59.3%, league average: 34.2%).
Offense: New York is making minor strides in converting third downs. In Weeks 4-5, they picked up just 26.5% of their third downs, a rate that rose to 31.8% in Weeks 6-7 and to 40.9% over the past two weeks.
Defense: A league-high 45.6% of yards gained against the Jets come on the ground (league average: 35.6%).
Fantasy: Garrett Wilson’s aDOT is 35.2% higher when Davante Adams is on the field than when he’s not – something that adds both upside (like what we saw on Thursday night against the Texans) and downside into his fantasy profile.
Betting: The Jets have failed to cover three straight road games (cumulative cover margin in those games: -38) and eight of their past 10.
Arizona Cardinals
Team: Arizona is 5-4 this season after winning just five of their previous 27 games.
QB: Three times over the past month, Kyler Murray failed to rush for 20 yards (prior to this stretch, 49.4 rush yards per game).
Offense: Arizona averages 4.78 runs per game of 10-plus yards, a figure that sits behind only Lamar Jackson’s Ravens through nine weeks.
Defense: The Cardinals have the second-worst third-down defense in the NFL (48.2%, only one-tenth of a point ahead of the Panthers).
Fantasy: James Conner continues to be a good story, but be careful – his fantasy points per touch is pacing to decline for a third straight season (every year of his Arizona career) and this is still ap layer who has missed multiple games in every season entering 2024.
Betting: The Cardinals are 2-5 ATS (28.6%) in their last seven games when their opponent enters on extended rest (the Jets beat the Texans last Thursday night).