This game we play can be difficult. Rostering the “right” players in fantasy football is a part of the equation, but without sound decision-making on a consistent basis, your team is going nowhere.
With that understanding, let’s look at Monday night’s game between the New York Jets and San Francisco 49ers and try to optimize lineups with players who are on your radar.
New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers
- Spread: 49ers -3.5
- Total: 43.5
- Jets implied points: 20
- 49ers implied points: 23.5
The projections in this article are from PFN’s consensus projection system. To see the latest projections for every player, check out PFN’s Start/Sit tool.
Plug in Aaron Rodgers as a Starter?
- Fantasy Points: 9.6
- Passing Yards: 121.7
- Passing TDs: 1.0
- Interceptions: 0.2
- Rushing Yards: 4.6
- Rushing TDs: 0.1
I’m not forcing the issue. If you spent a late-round pick on the four-time MVP as a way to bet on talent at a discount, that’s fine, but why swallow this level of risk with all 32 teams in action this week and an elite defense on the other sideline?
- Sept. 13, 2020
That was the last time Rodgers threw a touchdown in his season opener. His opposing number in Week 1 (Brock Purdy) couldn’t legally drink alcohol the last time it happened – it’s been a minute. That’s not to say that Rodgers can’t produce, but he’s very much a structured QB who thrives when the non-verbal communication with his teammates is strong. That, naturally, takes time and reps.
The 49ers’ defense was the 10th best at generating pressure last season when not blitzing and top-five in terms of opponent yards per pass attempt and overall passer rating. I have projected both of these defenses as elite, and both offenses are penciled in as bottom-quartile units in terms of tempo.
If either of those assumptions is accurate, Rodgers is going to struggle to be viable in even the deepest of leagues — if both are, he’s at risk of hurting you even in a Superflex setting.
Can Brock Purdy Overcome a Tough Matchup?
- Fantasy Points: 14.3
- Passing Yards: 189.8
- Passing TDs: 1.5
- Interceptions: 0.5
- Rushing Yards: 4.7
- Rushing TDs: 0.1
I’m as deep into the spreadsheets as anyone — so much so that my computer has begun prompting me to type “Brock Purdy” any time after the word regression.
It’s going to happen, that’s just math. To what degree we can debate, but let’s save those fighting words for another day. The Jets had the second-lowest blitz rate in the league last season (16.8%; league average: 26%) and that should allow Purdy time to diagnose the schemes coming his way.
I think he can be effective in this spot, I just don’t think the possession count is going to be nearly high enough to lock him into my top 12. It might sound crazy, but I’d rather Jared Goff on Sunday night against the Rams or even Trevor Lawrence *ducks* in a potential keep-up spot against the Dolphins.
Purdy should be serviceable this season, I just think he leaves you wanting more on Monday night.
The Beginning of a Special Season for Breece Hall?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 19.2
- Rushing Yards: 70.9
- Rushing TDs: 0.5
- Receptions: 4.1
- Receiving Yards: 37.5
- Receiving TDs: 0.2
A running back only cleared 20 PPR points once against the 49ers last season, and the position only reached 14 fantasy points five times.
This defense is elite, but we live in the year 2024, and great offense trumps great defense. Hall was eased into the lead role through four weeks last season. After that, he gave us five straight games with 12+ carries and 3+ catches (the longest streak by a running back in one of his first two seasons since Saquon Barkley in 2018).
Maybe we don’t get a ceiling game in this spot, but top-10 numbers should be expected, with room for more if Rodgers is in vintage form.
Can Anyone Stop Christian McCaffrey?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 23.1
- Rushing Yards: 79.2
- Rushing TDs: 0.5
- Receptions: 5.2
- Receiving Yards: 45.7
- Receiving TDs: 0.3
It’s always fun to have your best player involved in the final game of the week. Only the Ravens allowed a touchdown on a lower percentage of drives last season than the Jets, but you’re overthinking this at a high level if you have CMC labeled as anything but your best running back this week. (He’s fallen all the way to RB2 in my weekly ranks as a result of this matchup.)
Christian McCaffrey with TD #21!
Is CMC the MVP? pic.twitter.com/Tr10vOsUEc
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) December 26, 2023
McCaffrey carried the rock 146 times in enemy territory a season ago. Not only did that lead the league, but it was also more such carries than 10 teams had from their entire backfields.
This blend of talent, role, and offensive environment is as rare as it gets. Enjoy the privilege of having this man on your roster, even in the toughest of spots.
What To Expect From Garrett Wilson Against an Elite Defense
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 17.1
- Receptions: 7.1
- Receiving Yards: 73.2
- Receiving TDs: 0.5
Will Rodgers make it a point to feed his WR1 to open the season? It’s certainly not off the table — 14 of his 32 completions in Week 1, 2020, went to Davante Adams, resulting in a cool 156 yards and two touchdowns.
I don’t think anyone in their right mind is expecting a game like that in what projects to be a low-possession game, though I would be surprised if Wilson didn’t flirt with a target share in the high 20s, a role that includes red-zone looks.
As for Wilson himself, I was encouraged by a breadcrumb he left last season. We see the highlight catches from athletic freaks like this, but that’s not what creates a stable fantasy floor. In 2023, he showed us some NFL discipline and earned targets in a comforting way from the slot.
Target rate when in the slot:
2022: 22.6%
2023: 27.4%
It’s not his primary source of income, but I like his growth in effectiveness there, specifically for this matchup; four of the top five WR games against the 49ers last season came from a player who was lined up in the slot for the majority of their routes.
Wilson opens this season right where he closed draft season, and that is as a top-10 receiver.
Can Mike Williams Produce in a Limited Role?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 6.8
- Receptions: 2.4
- Receiving Yards: 33.4
- Receiving TDs: 0.2
We hear that he could be eased in like Breece Hall was last season. The running back’s snap count was managed, yes, but he touched the ball on 46.9% of his snaps through two weeks, a nearly identical rate to the rest of his season (47.3%).
The path to Williams paying off my sleeper prediction is for him to work back to full health when it matters most. I stand by him being roster-worthy, but there are 50+ receivers I’d rather roll the dice on this week (Khalil Shakir, Michael Wilson, and Joshua Palmer among my favorite dart throws of the week).
Is Brandon Aiyuk the Clear-Cut WR1 in San Francisco?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 12.7
- Receptions: 4.0
- Receiving Yards: 61.8
- Receiving TDs: 0.4
It was a far from quiet offseason for Aiyuk, but as long as he suits up for this game, I see no reason why he can’t be considered a top-20 play despite the matchup.
There is no denying that Aiyuk has a better connection with Purdy than Deebo Samuel Sr., something we saw by way of the big play — he had 28 deep receptions, a number topped by the one and only Tyreek Hill in 2023. In theory, this is a tough matchup. We know the Jets are loaded, and the potential for Rodgers to play at a snail’s pace certainly doesn’t help.
That said, featured receivers were able to do enough for fantasy managers last season against Gang Green. Jaylen Waddle caught eight of nine targets when he faced the Jets with Hill inactive (Hill caught nine of 12 targets in the other Miami/New York contest), Stefon Diggs had a game where he hauled in 10 of 13 targets, and the CeeDee Lamb/A.J. Brown contingent combined to grab 18 of 22 looks in their respective games against the Jets.
Would I have preferred a “normal” offseason? Of course, but I’m not punishing myself by benching Aiyuk to see if any of the noise impacts him. I’ll take my chances, and in the final game of the week, he could swing your matchup with a big night.
Can Deebo Samuel Sr. Expose the Jets After the Catch?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 12.6
- Rushing Yards: 13.7
- Rushing TDs: 0.3
- Receptions: 3.2
- Receiving Yards: 48.3
- Receiving TDs: 0.2
Samuel’s profile as a whole worries me from a volume perspective. We’ve seen him do a lot without massive usage numbers, making him an outlier but also a weekly risk.
The Jets allowed the sixth-most YAC to receivers last season (15.9% above league average), and that’s enough for him to slip inside my top 25 at the position; but if you’re buying my Aiyuk case, starting Samuel may not be as much of a lock as you think.
Once. Once last season did multiple receivers crack double figures in terms of PPR points against the Jets (Hill and Waddle did it in Week 12). That was part of an offense that led the league in passing — Purdy can be as efficient as he wants, but he’s not getting any of my money on a “to lead the NFL in passing yards” bet.
Samuel is my WR24, ranking just ahead of WR1s in iffy offenses (George Pickens and Terry McLaurin) but just behind other WR2s in better situations (Waddle and Cooper Kupp).
Is Tyler Conklin a Viable DFS Punt Play?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 7.3
- Receptions: 3.3
- Receiving Yards: 32.8
- Receiving TDs: 0.1
I used this stat a few times during the preseason when making the case for Conklin in deeper PPR formats, and I think it holds true again on Monday night.
Last season, after Rodgers’ injury and for the remainder of the fantasy season (Weeks 2-17), there were only five tight ends in the National Football League to have 4+ catches in more games than our guy TC.
- Evan Engram: 15
- Travis Kelce: 13
- David Njoku: 13
- T.J. Hockenson: 13
- Sam LaPorta: 11
That’s some impressive company, and with the 49ers owning the fourth-lowest opponent aDOT over the past two seasons, it wouldn’t surprise me if Conklin got his handful of highly efficient targets this week.
It may not matter for standard-sized leagues (there’s a lot of similarity at the position after TE13, making a player like this viable in deeper formats). But at some point, you’re going to be begging for cheap points; this is the man to do it.
Is This a George Kittle Breaks the Slate Week?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 9.5
- Receptions: 3.1
- Receiving Yards: 42.1
- Receiving TDs: 0.4
The Moby Dick of the fantasy industry. The reason for many a restless night. My first thought whenever I see that Charlie meme from “It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia” as he tries to connect the dots.
The random number generator that is Kittle has as many 20-point games as sub-six-point games (six) with Brock Purdy under center – one of the more consistent and efficient quarterbacks in our game today. If we can harness his powers for good, we are looking at a difference-maker, but you also want to try to avoid the pitfalls whenever possible.
Have I done it? Have I cracked the code?
Like Charlie, I spent way too much time on this, and my wife is questioning my sanity. Whatever … if I can get ahead of the Kittle peaks and valleys, it’ll all be worth it.
Those six big games I mentioned all came against a defense that was below average in terms of preventing yards after the catch, and five of them blitzed at a low rate. Of course, those are nice trends, but we will need to adapt to updated defensive trends as they come in.
For now, all we realistically have is 2023 data to rely on and guess when this profiles as a breakout spot!
Enjoy it. If the numbers from last year are even remotely predictive of this season, we will have to wait until a Thursday night showdown to kick off Week 6 for the next Kittle eclipse.