The Dallas Cowboys have had a rocky start to the 2024 NFL season at 3-4. But on Tuesday morning, their owner and president, Jerry Jones, struck an optimistic tone when discussing the franchise.
However, does Jones really have any reason to believe the Cowboys are going to turn their season around?
Dallas Cowboys Don’t Look Like a Contender
Appearing on 105.3 The Fan on Oct. 29, Jones suggested the Cowboys could have a “storybook ending” to their 2024 season despite owning a disappointing 3-4 record.
Jerry Jones: Lets have a story book ending to a rough start
— Clarence Hill Jr (@clarencehilljr) October 29, 2024
However, there is ample evidence to the contrary that suggests the Cowboys are what their record says they are.
Offense
PFN’s Offense+ metric combines stats such as yards per play, points per drive, and various expected points added (EPA) and success rate measures to evaluate offensive performance.
By Offense+, the Cowboys have the 22nd-ranked offense. Dallas’ two biggest problem areas have been in the red zone (31st in touchdown rate) and turnovers (30th in turnovers per drive).
That’s an extremely difficult combination to overcome. The only other team to rank bottom 10 in both categories is somehow the 7-0 Kansas City Chiefs. However, the Chiefs make up for that toxic combination with significant strengths elsewhere, including second-best in both third-down conversions and rushing success rate.
Dallas, meanwhile, ranks only 21st in success rate. In other words, they’re not able to stay on schedule or finish drives. That gives the Cowboys a much lower floor on offense compared to last year’s unit.
Dak Prescott hasn’t played well enough to overcome his environment, ranking 20th in EPA per play (-0.07). Prescott has never posted a negative EPA per play figure in his career but could do so for the first time in 2024 due to his lack of success targeting non-CeeDee Lamb receivers.
Prescott is averaging 0.15 EPA per target to Lamb but -0.11 to anyone else.
Here are our QB Rankings for Week 8 using our QB+ Metric 🏈
Our QB+ metric looks at several statistics, including net yards per attempt (nYPA), third-down conversion rate, passing under pressure, and passing from a clean pocket. Additionally, we have quantified performances in… pic.twitter.com/Ekw9A8R8ns
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 29, 2024
Defense
The other side of the ball doesn’t fare any better for Dallas. PFN’s Defense+ metric is similar to the offensive version, just flipped to the other side of the ball. By that metric, the Cowboys rank 26th in defense.
The other teams to rank 20th or worse in both Offense+ and Defense+:
- The 1-7 Carolina Panthers (27th in offense, 32nd in defense)
- The 2-6 New England Patriots (30th in offense, 28th in defense)
- The 2-6 Las Vegas Raiders (28th in offense, 21st in defense)
Dallas’ defensive struggles stem in part from their edge rusher injuries. With both Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence out since getting hurt in Week 4, the Cowboys’ pressure rate has plummeted from 45% in 2023 to 35% in 2024.
In addition, they’ve struggled to stop the run. Dallas ranks last in EPA per rush despite a historically great run defensive game in Week 4 when they held the New York Giants to 26 rushing yards on 24 attempts. In all other games, the Cowboys are allowing 5.3 yards per rush and 176 rushing yards per game.
Strength of Schedule
Overall, the Cowboys are the 25th-ranked team in PFN’s Power Rankings+, sandwiched between the 2-6 Giants and 1-6 Tennessee Titans.
The outlook remains dicey for Dallas looking ahead, as PFN projects the Cowboys to have the seventh-hardest remaining strength of schedule. Apart from a three-game stretch from Weeks 13-15 (Giants, Cincinnati Bengals, Panthers), every other team the Cowboys face currently has a winning record.
Ultimately, PFN’s playoff predictor gives Dallas less than a 10% chance to return to the playoffs. That makes it much more likely that Jones’ hopes for a storybook ending will actually turn out to be a nightmare.