With more managers taking part in playoff fantasy football leagues now that the regular season has concluded, Kansas City Chiefs RBs Jerick McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco will be hot names in drafts, as both enter the playoffs with a ton of momentum.
What are the fantasy values of both McKinnon and Pacheco, and how should we view them for Wild Card Weekend?
Jerick McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco’s Fantasy Value
The Chiefs’ running back room has been highly profitable to fantasy football for an offense that we consistently associate with a high-octane passing attack. The combination of Jerick McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco has given the Chiefs a much-needed sense of balance after Clyde Edwards-Helaire didn’t pan out despite the draft capital invested in him.
No one has been hotter recently than McKinnon. Since Week 10, he has been the RB6 in points per game at 16.9 PPR and is the RB2 since Week 13 at 23.2 PPR.
McKinnon can’t stay out of the end zone. He has scored in six straight games, totaling nine touchdowns (eight have come in the receiving game). The veteran RB has blossomed into essentially the No. 2 target on Kansas City’s offense. Over the last six games, McKinnon has averaged 5.5 rushes for 23.7 rushing yards with 5.2 targets, 4.5 receptions, 45.7 receiving yards, and 1.3 touchdowns per game — absurd numbers.
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McKinnon’s success has also taken away some of the spotlight from Pacheco. Since Week 10, Pacheco has averaged 15.2 touches and 83.3 yards per game as the RB19 with 11.6 PPR. While the Chiefs are out ahead, Pacheco tends to be more involved as they control the clock, but when it’s tighter, the snaps have been going more toward McKinnon since he suits the up-tempo pace of play a bit more.
The Chiefs are the favorites to come out of the AFC, which means likely a deep run in the playoffs, resulting in more games for MacKinnon and Pacheco. Barring an absolute shock, Kansas City will be in at least the AFC Championship and have good odds of making it to the Super Bowl.
They will need to make a deep run to make up for the goose egg due to having a first-round bye. With that said, I’m extremely bullish on both McKinnon and Pacheco for playoff fantasy football. McKinnon is ranked inside the top five for me, with Pacheco a low-end RB1/high-end RB2. While I prefer McKinnon, based on current trends, I have no issue with either running back on my fantasy football roster.
Fantasy Outlook for Jerick McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco in Wild Card Weekend
Although you will likely enjoy the benefits of rostering McKinnon or Pacheco in fantasy, that won’t be the case during the Wild Card round of the playoffs. The Chiefs secured the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC, which comes with home-field advantage and a first-round bye. Therefore, in the opening week of the playoffs, you’ll have to make do without Pacheco and McKinnon.
However, once beyond that, the Chiefs will likely play the winner of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Los Angeles Chargers contest. In terms of matchups, the Chargers and Jaguars are the two weakest rushing defenses in the playoffs (outside of perhaps the Giants in the NFC).
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The odds makers favor the Chargers to advance, which would be incredible for McKinnon and Pacheco, as the Chargers are 28th in rushing EPA, 21st in success rate, 26th in DVOA, and 26th in points per game since Week 12. Meanwhile, Jacksonville is 19th in success rate and 14th in points per game.
While I would not discount the Jaguars from knocking off the Chargers, the potential matchup for McKinnon and Pacheco against a vulnerable defense is too enticing for me to pass up. I’d be willing to take the zero during the Wild Card round to have them for the next two games at minimum. McKinnon would be a top-four pick at running back if you are playing in a Best Ball league as well.