The Kansas City Chiefs did RB Jerick McKinnon’s dynasty value no favors in 2023, as the veteran running back simply wasn’t a part of their offense due to injuries and the development of RB Isiah Pacheco.
Seemingly healthy as he enters free agency, can McKinnon be viewed as a distressed fantasy football asset that should be targeted in a buy-low trade offer?
Jerick McKinnon’s Dynasty Outlook
McKinnon is just one season removed from being a fantasy football league winner (Weeks 13-17, 2022: 56 touches for 410 yards and eight touchdowns), but he was very much dead weight in 2023 (injury-plagued, 46 touches in 12 games).
McKinnon prepares to enter his age-32 season away from the insulation of a Patrick Mahomes-led offense as he hits free agency, an outlook that is hard to spin in a positive light.
The veteran RB missed at least four games in two of three seasons with the Chiefs and hasn’t had an 85-carry season since 2017 with the Minnesota Vikings. Even in an abbreviated 2023 season, the signs of decline presented themselves.
2023 Recap
- aDOT down 63.2% from 2022
- Targeted on 18.4% of routes (career rate: 22.3%)
On the bright side, McKinnon will come cheap this offseason, and his third-down skill set fits nicely in most systems, given the open nature of offenses. On the downside, that ultra-specific role isn’t very fantasy-friendly, and leaving arguably the best offense in the league doesn’t help those prospects.
McKinnon’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does McKinnon land in the dynasty RB landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Soppe’s latest rankings, featuring where McKinnon lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Bijan Robinson | ATL
2) Christian McCaffrey | SF
3) Breece Hall | NYJ
4) Jonathan Taylor | IND
5) Jahmyr Gibbs | DET
6) Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX
7) Kyren Williams | LAR
8) James Cook | BUF
9) Saquon Barkley | NYG
10) Kenneth Walker III | SEA
11) De’Von Achane | MIA
12) Isiah Pacheco | KC
13) Tony Pollard | DAL
14) Alvin Kamara | NO
15) Javonte Williams | DEN
16) Rhamondre Stevenson | NE
17) Josh Jacobs | LV
18) D’Andre Swift | PHI
19) Rachaad White | TB
20) Aaron Jones | GB
21) Zamir White | LV
22) Austin Ekeler | LAC
23) Tyjae Spears | TEN
24) Joe Mixon | CIN
25) Nick Chubb | CLE
26) Najee Harris | PIT
27) David Montgomery | DET
28) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS
29) Jaylen Warren | PIT
30) Raheem Mostert | MIA
31) Derrick Henry | TEN
32) Khalil Herbert | CHI
33) James Conner | ARI
34) Kendre Miller | NO
35) Zach Charbonnet | SEA
36) Roschon Johnson | CHI
37) Dameon Pierce | HOU
38) Tank Bigsby | JAX
39) J.K. Dobbins | BAL
40) AJ Dillon | GB
41) Miles Sanders | CAR
42) Alexander Mattison | MIN
43) Gus Edwards | BAL
44) Zack Moss | IND
45) Tyler Allgeier | ATL
46) Chuba Hubbard | CAR
47) Elijah Mitchell | SF
48) Jerome Ford | CLE
49) Antonio Gibson | WAS
50) Darrell Henderson Jr. | FA
51) Jamaal Williams | NO
52) Devin Singletary | HOU
53) Chase Brown | CIN
54) Rashaad Penny | PHI
55) Samaje Perine | DEN
56) Kenneth Gainwell | PHI
57) Deuce Vaughn | DAL
58) D’Onta Foreman | CHI
59) Pierre Strong Jr. | CLE
60) Jordan Mason | SF
61) Sean Tucker | TB
62) Cam Akers | MIN
63) Michael Carter | ARI
64) Leonard Fournette | BUF
65) Damien Harris | BUF
66) Jeff Wilson Jr. | MIA
67) Ezekiel Elliott | NE
68) Zach Evans | LAR
69) Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC
70) Jerick McKinnon | KC
71) Kareem Hunt | CLE
72) Israel Abanikanda | NYJ
73) DeWayne McBride | MIN
74) Evan Hull | IND
75) Malik Davis | DAL
76) Isaiah Spiller | LAC
77) Eric Gray | NYG
78) Zonovan Knight | DET
79) Cordarrelle Patterson | ATL
80) Chase Edmonds | TB
Should You Trade McKinnon in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading McKinnon? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offer to make in seconds!
There’s no current trade market for McKinnon, so he could very well be worthy of cutting loose if he lands on a roster that already has a featured back in hand. I don’t doubt that he is capable of playing a role in the NFL, but that doesn’t make McKinnon a fantasy asset, especially in dynasty formats.
The rostering of McKinnon brings us to a constructive discussion. What is his upside? Is there any upside?
By rostering McKinnon as a depth piece, you’re telling yourself that there’s a path of him potentially producing for you in the short term –- no 32-year-old RB is being counted on as a long-term piece of interest.
How does he get there? The NFL has told us for a decade (three franchises) that McKinnon’s not a high-volume player. And with his efficiency dipping with age, there’s no true path to sustainable production.
If I’m betting on the “aging asset that might be able to fit a specific offensive niche” profile, it’s coming at any position besides running back.
We’ve seen some possession receivers age with grace (Carolina Panthers WR Adam Thielen caught 103 passes last season), and pocket passers can make it work into their later years (Tom Brady is the obvious example, but Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford flattered with 4,000 passing yards last season and Cleveland Browns QB Joe Flacco won Comeback Player of the Year).
MORE: Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Value Chart
McKinnon’s time as a viable asset is over. I’d hold onto him until he finds a home, and maybe the landing spot inspires a modicum of optimism from someone in your league. If not, you’re free to move on from him for any player with a reasonable path to production/hope.
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