As we close in toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy values constantly on the move, with key events like free agency and the 2023 NFL Draft still to come. Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the rules, let’s dive into the latest dynasty fantasy football value of RB Jeff Wilson Jr.
Jeff Wilson Jr. Dynasty Outlook and Value
Initially, with the San Francisco 49ers, Wilson started the season as the lead back in what was likely to be a workload split but became a more extensive role following an injury to Elijah Mitchell. Over the first eight weeks of the 2022 season, Wilson rushed 92 times for 468 yards (5.1 YPA) with two touchdowns. Accounting for 59% of the RB attempts, Wilson was one of the higher-volume RBs with four straight 12+ carry games between Weeks 2-5.
Unfortunately, Wilson, at least for fantasy, was not a significant factor in the receiving game, which is relatively normal for him. He only saw 13 targets in eight games, recording 10 receptions and 91 yards. But then, before the trade deadline, a familiar face in Mike McDaniel brought him to Miami to form a committee with another former teammate, Raheem Mostert.
The second half of the season was an improvement from a fantasy aspect. Seeing 53% of the rushing attempts and 41% of the RB targets, Wilson rushed 84 times for 392 yards with three touchdowns and caught 12 of 24 targets for 61 yards with another score.
Averaging 9.2 PPR/game over the first eight weeks, Wilson averaged 10.2 PPR with the Dolphins, with six of his eight games as the RB26 or higher. These averages also include a one-carry game in Week 13 against the 49ers, where Miami had no offense to speak of, either rushing or passing.
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Miami faces an interesting dilemma this offseason as their entire RB room, including Mostert, Wilson, Salvon Ahmed (RFA), and Myles Gaskin, are set to hit free agency. Of those four, I do expect the Dolphins to bring back at least one, maybe two, for continuity’s sake.
With that said, I wouldn’t expect them to be done. Given the loaded depth of the draft at the position and names like Saquon Barkley, Miles Sanders, and David Montgomery also hitting the open market, the Dolphins will unquestionably do their due diligence. I leave out both Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard, with the former expected to be tagged if a long-term deal is not reached, and the latter already tagged by the Cowboys.
This places Wilson in an odd spot as one of the many veteran RBs looking for jobs. He’ll need to compete with the likes of Jamaal Williams, Damien Harris, and Kareem Hunt, but he won’t break the bank with a $2.9 million-per-year market value estimate from Spotrac.
Speaking only about the RBs Miami could retain, I would give the edge to both Ahmed and Wilson. We saw Wilson fit in well with the Dolphins, which should be no surprise since he knew the system already and, from a dynasty perspective, was a serviceable RB3. But he could also see a similar role with several other teams. Given his burst and efficiency, he could step into a No. 2 role for an offense.
Jeff Wilson Jr. Fantasy Ranking
Wilson heads into free agency in an odd position for dynasty. He can be productive at times but lacks a consistent touch-floor to raise his value, and more than likely, whatever team he lands on will want him in a committee largely due to durability concerns. But as a change-of-pace back, he can be great.
Due to this, plus him nearing the age apex (27), Wilson comes in a bit lower in updated dynasty rankings. Currently, Wilson is the RB50 and 170th overall player in Superflex leagues due to the increased value of QBs and the positional scarcity.
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I struggle to find a scenario where Wilson rises in offseason dynasty rankings, especially when we have to consider the impact of the incoming rookie class of running backs that will unquestionably disrupt the landscape. I could list around 12-15 names that I would feel relatively certain will be ranked higher than Wilson following the draft alone.
If I had Wilson on a roster, I would try to see if you could get a mid-to-late third-round rookie pick for him and recycle the position for someone with more youth if you don’t like the landing spot or want to get ahead of the news cycle and shifting landscape. If not, you’ll be waiting on a few decent games or an injury and then attempting to capitalize in a very small sell-high window, if that even happens.