As we look towards the Week 4 waiver wire, J.D. McKissic’s fantasy football has been on the rise in the past two weeks. Let’s take a look at what McKissic’s performances have looked like this season, whether he offers value to fantasy managers, and which formats he is the most valuable in.
Should fantasy managers target J.D. McKissic on the Week 4 waiver wire?
Given that McKissic is a running back, his stats are somewhat upside down to what you might expect. Through the first three weeks, he has carried the ball nine times for a total of 25 yards. Meanwhile, when it comes to the receiving game, he has 16 receptions for 106 yards on 19 targets. The majority of that receiving production has come in the past two weeks. Across those two games, he has 16 targets with 13 receptions for 86 yards.
The key to McKissic’s value has been the game script. In Week 1, the Washington Commanders got the lead and then leaned on Antonio Gibson. In that first week, Gibson played 64 percent of the snaps, which has dropped to 54 percent and then 44 percent. In contrast, McKissic’s snap share has risen from 40 percent in Week 1 to 46 percent in Week 2 and 53 percent in Week 3.
In a limited sample size, his usage in the passing game is encouraging. After averaging 4.8 targets per game last year, he is back closer to the 6.88 targets per game he averaged in 2020. Additionally, the efficiency leaves some room for growth, which is intriguing.
In his career, McKissic has averaged 7.7 yards per reception and 5.9 yards per touch. He is currently sitting at 6.6 yards per reception and 5.2 yards per touch. It is intriguing because, in terms of his average depth of target, his 2.3 yards is the highest of the past three seasons. The bit where he has struggled this year is making yards after the catch. McKissic is averaging just 4.5 yards after the catch per reception, compared to numbers of 6.3 and 8.8 in his first two years in Washington.
Some of that could be due to the groin injury he suffered in training camp. Therefore, as he gets further away from that, we could see him starting to produce a little better than we have seen through the first three weeks. That is certainly enticing when considering him as a waiver wire option this week.
McKissic’s value is extremely format dependent
When fantasy managers are considering whether to acquire McKissic on the waiver wire, the scoring format is key. Through the first three weeks, McKissic has scored just 15.1 fantasy points in non-PPR scoring, an average of just 5.03 fantasy points per game (ppg). Those numbers see McKissic tied for 43rd overall at the position. When we go week-by-week, he was the RB46 in Week 1, RB30 in Week 2, and RB40 in Week 3. Therefore, he has been a starting option once through those three weeks in non-PPR scoring.
When we look at half-PPR, the picture improves somewhat. McKissic has scored 23.1 fantasy points for an average of 7.7 fantasy ppg. After Sunday of Week 3, he ranks 36th at the position, having twice finished inside the top 30 for a single week. In Week 2, McKissic finished as high as 19th at the position, while he is the RB33 for Week 3 heading into Monday Night Football.
As you would expect, things look even rosier in full-PPR. McKissic has scored 31.1 fantasy points for an average of 10.4 ppg to sit 31st at the position. In terms of single-game output, he was as high as the RB13 in Week 2 and currently sits as the RB28 in Week 3. Meanwhile, he was the RB40 in Week 1.
As you can see, the picture is quite clear. McKissic is a solid weekly flex option in 12-team PPR formats when the Commanders are expected to be chasing the game. However, in non-PPR, or games where Washington could be in the lead, his value drops significantly. In half-PPR, he is a weekly starting flex option in 14-team leagues. In non-PPR, he doesn’t come into the reckoning until we get to the 16-team depth, and even then, he is a very limited ceiling play with a mediocre floor.
In terms of priority, regardless of the format, McKissic is low down the priority at RB. With handcuff options like Khalil Herbert, Alexander Mattison, and Jamaal Williams, McKissic is a clear fourth, at best. The positive news is that if fantasy managers are just looking for a depth option who can be an occasional starter, McKissic could very much slide under the radar among much more highly targeted options in Week 4.