J.D. McKissic is in the midst of a fantasy football break out season, but can he continue to produce in Week 16? Let’s take a look at McKissic’s season so far, the backfield situation for the Washington Football Team, and his matchup for Week 16.
J.D. McKissic has shone when given the opportunity in 2020
The first three-quarters of the season was assuredly mixed for J.D. McKissic, and it resulted in up and down production for fantasy managers. However, McKissic is currently averaging a solid 11.4 fantasy points per game, with a floor of 4.7 since Week 2. During that stretch, McKissic has scored double digits in PPR formats seven times.
On the season, McKissic ranks as the 32nd best running back in PPR when it comes to points per game. In terms of total fantasy points, McKissic ranks 22nd, but it is the last few weeks where he has really shone.
J.D. McKissic has stepped up since Antonio Gibson was injured
Gibson was injured in Week 13 when he suffered a turf toe injury early in the game. Since then, McKissic and Peyton Barber have been left to shoulder the load at running back for Washington. In those three weeks, McKissic has scored 54.1 fantasy points in PPR formats, averaging 18 points per game.
Against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Seattle Seahawks, he did most of his damage in the passing game. In those two games, he has caught 19 of 20 targets for 126 yards and a touchdown. However, against the San Francisco 49ers and then the Seahawks, he also contributed as a more traditional running back. Across those two games, he saw 24 carries, which he turned into 119 yards.
Last week in the Washington loss to the Seahawks, McKissic rushed 13 times for 51 yards and added 10 targets for 56 yards and a touchdown. He scored a massive 25.7 fantasy points in PPR formats in that game, his career’s highest return.
The situation in Washington could be murky for J.D. McKissic in Week 16
When the game finished last Sunday, head coach Ron Rivera was hopeful Washington would have Antonio Gibson available for Week 16. Gibson was able to practice last Friday and has been limited at practice throughout Week 16, which is a good sign for the rookie. Gibson is listed as questionable for Week 16 but is expected to play.
However, the presence of Gibson somewhat clouds the picture for McKissic. When Gibson has been healthy, McKissic’s role in the offense has fluctuated wildly. That fluctuation is a big reason why McKissic ranks 28th in Pro Football Network’s Consistency Score. The presence of a do-it-all type back in Gibson has, at times, limited McKissic’s usefulness to the offense. When Gibson has been inactive, McKissic has been the main back, with Peyton Barber seeing goal line and short-yardage work.
McKissic has seen plenty of time on the field in 2020
Across the 2020 season, J.D. McKissic has played at least 40% of the offensive snaps for Washington. As a general rule, when Washington wins a game easily, McKissic sees fewer snaps, and when they are in a tight game, he sees more snaps. His lowest snap share of the season was 41%, as Washington blew out Dallas 41-16 on Thanksgiving. With Gibson out, that has not the case, as Gibson saw 74% and 65% of the snaps in Washington’s victories over the Steelers and 49ers.
Should you start or sit J.D. McKissic in Week 16 for your fantasy playoffs?
The somewhat crazy thing for McKissic is that he is having a career-year, and yet he is actually underachieving. He enters Week 16 with a -15% Fantasy Points Differential demonstrating there is still room for development in the future. In Week 16, with the potential of Gibson returning, can McKissic continue to be an option for fantasy managers?
The Panthers are a matchup to exploit for running backs
Heading into Week 16, the Panthers allow the sixth-most points to the RB position at 25.3. On the ground, they allow 104.4 rushing yards per game and 4.8 yards per attempt. The Panthers have allowed four 100-yard rushing games and 11 rushing touchdowns to the position.
On the receiving side, the defense has been reasonably solid. They have allowed just two receiving touchdowns to the running back position. However, they do allow an average of 38.6 receiving yards per game at an average of 5.8 reception per game.
The slight caveat is that McKissic can often be a player who flexes out into the slot, meaning that numbers against the RB position can be somewhat misleading when considering McKissic’s value.
What does the return of Antonio Gibson mean for J.D. McKissic’s fantasy value?
Gibson’s return likely means we do not see McKissic hit his average of 12 carries per game. However, that might only drop into the seven or eight carry region. Turf toe can be a tricky injury, and Gibson will likely not come back at 100%. This is also a game that could end up being somewhat close through the first three-quarters. That is a game script that can play into McKissic’s hands.
One of the big concerns last week was that Dwayne Haskins would not target McKissic as much as Alex Smith. Ten targets tell a different story, and whichever QB is under center, McKissic should see reasonable volume in the passing game.
Gibson did see seven targets in the Thanksgiving game against Dallas, but his usage in the passing game has fluctuated all season. That role should still sit with McKissic.
Can you trust J.D. McKissic in Week 16?
It is tough to fully trust a back whose role is undefined, but in PPR formats the floor and ceiling for McKissic are both interesting. In non-PPR formats, there is more reason for caution. Ultimately, the decision over whether J.D. McKissic starts will depend on your fantasy rosters. Entering Week 16, he sits as an RB3/FLEX level player in PPR formats if Gibson is active. However, if Washington decided to be cautious with Gibson, McKissic would be an RB3/FLEX in standard formats and an RB2 in PPR.
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