The Miami Dolphins are set with De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert as their top two running backs. Even so, they still drafted rookie RB Jaylen Wright. Is there a path for Wright to have fantasy football value in 2024?
Jaylen Wright’s 2024 Fantasy Forcast
The Dolphins sported one of the best running games in football last season. Behind the veteran Mostert and the explosive rookie Achane, Miami ran for 2,308 yards and scored 27 touchdowns as a team, and averaged 5.1 yards per carry.
While the Dolphins have no concerns about their RB duo, there were instances where Mostert and Achane missed time. When this happened, they were forced to deploy replacement-level talents like Jeff Wilson Jr. and Salvon Ahmed. The drop off in ability was noticeable.
Fantasy managers should not look at Wright as a serious threat to Achane or Mostert. If things go well for the Dolphins, the rookie will finish the season with fewer than 50 touches.
Unfortunately, football is a violent game. Players get hurt. The overwhelming likelihood is that at least one of Achane or Mostert will miss time. Miami doesn’t want to get caught without a running back capable of operating within their system. Additionally, Mostert is 32 years old. This is where Wright comes in.
Wright is a 21-year-old rookie who ran a 4.38 40-time. He has elite speed and burst, exactly what the Dolphins need out of their running backs. In his final collegiate season, Wright carried the ball 137 times for 1,013 yards.
This is a player capable of explosive plays. The problem, as we’ve established, is opportunity.
Barring something happening to Mostert or Achane between now and Week 1, Wright is going to open the season with little to no opportunity. There’s simply no reason for any running back other than Mostert or Achane to touch the ball while both are healthy. But the moment something happens to one of them, Wright is going to be a popular waiver wire pickup. You can get out in front of that by drafting him.
The problem with drafting Wright is he carries an RB47 ADP. While the upside is there, that is awfully high for a player who is his team’s RB3.
Wright would have fantasy value if Mostert or Achane got hurt, but he would still be part of a committee. As much as I want to put explosive players with high ceilings on my bench, the path to reaching that upside needs to be much more plausible than it is for Wright.
I have Wright ranked as my RB50. That’s not so far below consensus that I’m saying you shouldn’t draft him. It’s just hard to envision a scenario where anyone drafting Wright is willing to sit on him for multiple weeks while he barely plays, waiting, hoping for an injury to one of the guys above him. Roster spots are too valuable.
If you want to take a shot on Wright, by all means, do so. Just be prepared to cut bait early in the season if you need to, while also mentally preparing yourself for the possibility that someone else picks him up and reaps the rewards later on.
Jaylen Wright’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 120.5
- Rushing Yards: 605.5
- Rushing TDs: 3.4
- Receptions: 18.4
- Receiving Yards: 183.7
- Receiving TDs: 0.5
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of July 5. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
