Jaylen Warren’s fantasy football value has been slowly increasing throughout his rookie season. Heading into Week 10, Warren comes off the Pittsburgh Steelers‘ bye week after having the best game of his career when he was last on the field.
Let’s take a look at Warren’s potential role in the Steelers’ offense and whether fantasy managers should look to add him this week in the hope he can be a fantasy asset down the stretch.
Is Jaylen Warren a Fantasy Asset That Managers Should Add This Week?
Warren’s role this season has been somewhat all over the place. He has played at least 20% of the offensive snaps in every game this season and as many as 51% (Week 5). His opportunities have ranged from two in Week 6 to 10 in Week 5. However, it has been hard to judge going into the game whether Warren might have fantasy value from week to week.
What we have seen so far is that Warren’s touches have tended to correlate with the game script. Overall, Warren has played 31.6% of the Steelers’ offensive snaps. However, when the Steelers have been trailing by 18 points or more, his snap share has risen above that average. In situations where the Steelers have trailed by 18 to 24 points, his snap share has risen to 45.7% and further jumps to 63.6% when they trail by 25 or more points.
Bye weeks can often be intriguing for the usage of rookies. The week off gives them more time to get embedded in the offense and flip their usage down the line. Coming out of the bye week, there have been reports that while Najee Harris will not be benched, Warren is expected to see an increased workload.
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When you look at how they have performed this year, Warren has appeared the more impactful. He is 5.3 yards per rush attempt, compared to 3.3 for Harris. When you break that down, Warren has been doing a better job of making yards before contact. He averages 3.9 yards before contact (YBC) per rush, while Harris is down at 2.1 YBC per rush.
The trouble there is that relatively we are talking about a small sample size for Warren. He has just 29 rushing attempts to 108 for Harris. Therefore, his yards before contact could be heavily influenced by just a handful of runs where he has made a large number of yards before being contacted.
While Warren has not had enough rushing attempts to be included in Next Gen Stats’ public data, Harris has clearly struggled. He has the second-worst rushing yards over expectation per attempt at -0.88. Similarly, only Brian Robinson has a lower percentage of his rushing attempts that have resulted in an output that is below expectation than Harris (28.6%).
Therefore, there is certainly scope for Warren to take on a bigger role going forward. The struggles we have seen from Harris have likely caused a huge drop in confidence, while Warren has looked fresher and more dynamic in his opportunities. Harris was not that efficient as a rookie either, but there was no back in that situation or provided a viable alternative to the level Warren has appeared to so far this season.
What Should Fantasy Managers Expect from Warren in Week 10?
Adding Warren as an option to use in anything other than a deep-league desperation situation would be optimistic. Previously, we have seen relatively little from him outside of late-game opportunities when the Steelers are trailing. Even if he does see an increase in opportunities, we are not expecting him to flip the script and lead the team in rushing attempts in Week 10.
Additionally, the matchup with the New Orleans Saints this week is not a slam dunk for success. Their 19.39 average fantasy points allowed to RBs is pretty much the league average this season.
The Baltimore Ravens, led by Kenyan Drake, put up 27.5 fantasy points against them in Week 9, and the Arizona Cardinals found success against them in Week 7 (32 fantasy points). However, they held Josh Jacob and the Las Vegas Raiders backs to 11.2 fantasy points in Week 8.
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With the confusing picture of how this backfield could shape out this week, it is tough to see Warren having a significant fantasy output. If anything, the potential of Warren having more touches just serves to make Harris a tougher fantasy asset to trust.
While you may not be able to use him in Week 10, the numbers point towards Warren as the potentially more effective back for the Steelers down the stretch. If that is the case, we could see more and more of the rookie as the Steelers slide out of contention. In that situation, they would likely look to reduce the workload on their former first-round back (Harris) and could even consider shutting him down for the final few weeks.
If Harris were to be shut down or just used in a limited role to save the hits on his body and the miles in his legs, Warren could become an intriguing Flex option in 12-team leagues heading into the fantasy playoffs.
Therefore, if you have the chance to stash him on your bench, it could be a good thing to do ahead of Week 10. If we see closer to a 50-50 split for Harris and Warren this week, then the rookie RB could be a very popular waiver wire name next week.
Stats courtesy of TruMedia, Next Gen Stats, and Pro Football Reference