Pittsburgh Steelers RB Jaylen Warren gave his fantasy football managers over 1,100 total yards last season. Yet, he’s remained behind Najee Harris on the depth chart, and that will likely be the case entering the 2024 season, too.
Should Warren be counted on as a weekly starter for the first time, or do his limitations in the touch department keep him out of that discussion?
Should You Select Jaylen Warren at His Current ADP?
ADP: 85th Overall (RB29)
If you want to talk yourself into Warren early in the eighth round (1-1.5 round discount from Harris), it’s a bet on talent and your willingness to gamble.
Warren averaged 60% more yards per carry before first contact last season than Harris and is simply the more explosive player. He finished 2023 with just three fewer broken tackles despite 106 fewer attempts than Harris and matched him with 24 rushes of 10+ yards.
Warren is being drafted alongside some interesting names. Javonte Williams (now two years removed from the brutal knee injury) is my favorite of a group that includes Zamir White (first season with a starting role), James Conner (5.0 ypc last season but has 1,125 carries for his career and a third-round pick in Trey Benson waiting in the wings), and Zack Moss (also in a full-blown committee).
I’m expecting Warren’s 2024 season to look something like 2023. He only had five games in which he reached double figures in carries, and, barring the first real injury in Harris’ career, that role figures to be capped so that his viability every week will be a question.
If you like Warren’s specific matchup or his passing game numbers are trending in a certain direction, paying down for him in a DFS setting may be the best way to get some exposure this season.
Warren’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
After an impressive season at Oklahoma State in 2021 (1,441 total yards with 11 rushing touchdowns), Warren showed glimpses of his potential when given the opportunity as a rookie (5.6 yards per touch) — production that was sustained in Year 2 as he took on a larger role (5.3 yards per carry and 12.4 touches per game).
Gosh I love watching Jaylen Warren run. Top-tier balance with tremendous power for his size. Underrated agility. Just a really good football player.
(I know, I know–GB defense…) pic.twitter.com/dXdpGzxo8a
— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) November 14, 2023
However, Harris carries first-round draft capital with him and has never missed a game, making the Warren profile a difficult one to truly fall in love with.
Last season, it was a 63.1%-36.9% split in terms of carry count between Harris and Warren, a gap that could narrow this season with Arthur Smith handling the offensive coordinator duties.
Smith was in Atlanta last season, a team that gave Tyler Allgeier 186 carries and Bijan Robinson 214. The No. 8 pick in 2023 showed elite potential when given the opportunity.
This Warren/Harris talent gap isn’t nearly what the Robinson/Allgeier is, making me believe that this could truly be a “hot hand” approach where the distribution of touches is determined more in-game than pre-game.
That, of course, is maddening to fantasy managers and why I’m largely avoiding the uncertainty that comes with this backfield in redraft situations.
