Pittsburgh Steelers running back Jaylen Warren was a revelation last season as a UDFA. He beat out several players the Steelers previously drafted to secure the RB2 role behind Najee Harris. Firmly in that role this season, can Warren attain standalone value, or is he merely a handcuff? What is his fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
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Jaylen Warren’s Fantasy Outlook
Credit to the Steelers for looking at Benny Snell and Anthony McFarland and determining that despite being a UDFA, Warren was deserving of the backup running back role ahead of them. However, this is still Harris’ backfield.
Warren opened the season as the immediate RB2, playing 40% of the snaps in Week 1. On the season, he managed a 31.6% snap share. It’s enough to establish him as the unquestioned handcuff but not enough to give him standalone value.
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Warren never scored more than 12.8 PPR fantasy points in a single game last season. He was good enough to warrant double-digit carries twice, though. That’s at least something. And he was effective, averaging 4.92 yards per carry.
We know it’s easier to be efficient on limited touches, but Warren still averaged 3.82 yards created per touch and a 40% evaded-tackles-per-touch rate, both fifth in the league.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Warren at His ADP?
Warren enters this season as the clear RB2 behind Harris. There were definitely signs last season that the Steelers want to reduce Harris’ workload.
As a rookie, Harris led the league in opportunity share at 86.4%. That dropped to a 10th-ranked 69.9% last season. Could it decrease even more, giving Warren a chance to carve out a bigger role? It’s possible, but I wouldn’t consider it likely.
With an RB53, No. 175 overall ADP, Warren is being treated like a pure handcuff. Given how dedicated the Steelers are to running the ball, Warren would have legitimate RB2 upside if something were to happen to Harris.
While he won’t have much in the way of value while Harris is healthy, Warren still sees enough work to not get you zero if you need him in a pinch. And if Harris went down, Warren would likely assume at least 80% of his workload.
My projections have Warren at 134 carries for 608 yards and 3.4 touchdowns on the ground, with 36 receptions for 263 yards and 1.7 touchdowns through the air. I have him averaging 9.2 ppg, which comes out to the RB39.
I have Warren ranked at RB39, which is well above his ADP. He is one of my favorite RB4/5 targets and the exact type of player I look for in a later-round pick.