Jaylen Warren went from a roster-hopeful UDFA to the legitimate 1B in the Pittsburgh Steelers‘ backfield. He’s established himself as a relevant fantasy football asset. Heading into the 2024 season, his team has undergone a radical offensive makeover. How does this impact Warren’s dynasty value?
Jaylen Warren’s Dynasty Outlook
Ahead of the 2023 season, Warren was one of my top targets in redraft leagues. As someone who didn’t fully believe in Najee Harris, I wanted Warren on my team.
With the news that Arthur Smith has been hired as the offensive coordinator for the Pittsburgh Steelers, what is the fantasy football impact?
How should you view Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Jaylen Warren, and Najee Harris?
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There’s a specific type of running back I like to target with late-round picks. I specifically go after backs who have injury-contingent upside but also possess standalone value. If they have the potential to take over their backfield without injury, that’s a bonus.
Warren checked all three boxes. Buying into him in 2023 required a bit of projection, though. After all, he was mostly a backup as a rookie UDFA and averaged a mere 5.8 fantasy points per game.
Fortunately, Warren’s cost made it worth taking the shot, and he rewarded fantasy managers. While 11.6 fantasy points per game isn’t exactly winning fantasy managers any leagues, or even matchups, everything is relative. We will take 11.6 fantasy points per game from our RB4 or RB5.
A mid-RB3 finish from your fourth-round pick is very different than a mid-RB3 finish from a guy you drafted in the ninth round or picked up off the waiver wire.
In most dynasty leagues, Warren was a UDFA, not just in the NFL Draft, but in rookie drafts as well. He was likely picked up in late August/early September once it became apparent he had won the RB2 role behind Harris.
Despite the increased volume in his sophomore season, Warren’s efficiency remained elite. He averaged 5.5 yards per touch, seventh in the league, and his 32% evaded-tackles-per-touch rate led the NFL.
MORE: Dynasty Trade Value Chart
A stellar 8.1% of Warren’s carries went for 15+ yards. He also averaged 4.65 yards created per touch — both third in the league. Metrics like this are why fantasy managers have been banging the drum for Warren to be the Steelers’ lead back ahead of the plodding Harris for the past year.
While Warren didn’t overtake Harris completely, he did work this into a near-even timeshare. Warren saw a 49.1% snap share and a 43.1% opportunity share. He made most of his impact in the passing game, operating as the primary receiving back. His 15.3% target share was sixth in the league among running backs.
Given that Warren touched the ball just 230 times, an overall RB29 finish is quite impressive. The question now is whether he can take another step forward.
Warren’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Warren sit in the dynasty RB landscape? Here are Katz’s latest rankings, featuring where Warren lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Breece Hall | NYJ
2) Bijan Robinson | ATL
3) Jahmyr Gibbs | DET
4) Christian McCaffrey | SF
5) Jonathan Taylor | IND
6) De’Von Achane | MIA
7) Kyren Williams | LAR
8) Saquon Barkley | PHI
9) Josh Jacobs | GB
10) Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX
11) Rachaad White | TB
12) Isiah Pacheco | KC
13) Kenneth Walker III | SEA
14) James Cook | BUF
15) D’Andre Swift | CHI
16) Javonte Williams | DEN
17) Derrick Henry | BAL
18) Tony Pollard | TEN
19) David Montgomery | DET
20) Rhamondre Stevenson | NE
21) Joe Mixon | HOU
22) Alvin Kamara | NO
23) Najee Harris | PIT
24) Jaylen Warren | PIT
25) Tyjae Spears | TEN
26) James Conner | ARI
27) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS
28) Aaron Jones | MIN
29) Zamir White | LV
30) Austin Ekeler | WAS
31) Zach Charbonnet | SEA
32) Nick Chubb | CLE
33) Jerome Ford | CLE
34) Devin Singletary | NYG
35) Gus Edwards | LAC
36) Chuba Hubbard | CAR
Should You Trade Warren in Dynasty?
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Since Warren was a UDFA, his rookie deal could have been anything. Yet, he signed a three-year deal which is set to expire at the end of the 2024 season.
Harris’ rookie contract is also up, assuming they don’t exercise his fifth-year option, which I expect them not to.
There are a lot of moving parts when it comes to Warren, all of which can send his dynasty value in one direction or the other.
Before we even get to Warren’s second contract, there’s the matter of the 2024 season. While dynasty managers need to think beyond just the upcoming year, for a guy like Warren, one season can have a massive impact on his future value.
The Steelers underwent a quarterback overhaul the likes of which I cannot remember ever seeing. Gone are all three quarterbacks who made starts for them last season. Replacing them are Russell Wilson, who will be the Week 1 starter, and Justin Fields, who I believe will inevitably supplant Wilson during the season.
While neither Wilson nor Fields are top-of-the-line starters, they are both substantial upgrades on the dynamic trio of Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky, and Mason Rudolph. A more prolific, higher-scoring offense is better for everyone, including Warren.
The biggest wild card, however, is new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. It’s very tough to get a read on how he will deploy his running backs.
On the one hand, in Atlanta, Smith established that he does not like giving the ball to his best players. But was it actually that? Or does Smith have an aversion to higher-drafted players?
Warren is a more talented player than Harris, but Harris has the first-round draft capital. It’s anyone’s guess as to whether Warren’s usage is better, worse, or roughly the same.
Overall, the Steelers should remain a run-heavy offense. Over the past two seasons, Smith’s Falcons led the NFL with a 53% neutral game script run rate. They also led the league in negative game script run rate. Suffice it to say this team is going to run a lot. Is that good for Warren, who is primarily the receiving back? Again, we need to see how Smith deploys his running backs.
From a longer-term perspective, fantasy managers need to also consider the contract situation of the Steelers’ running backs. It would be a major surprise if both Harris and Warren remained on the team for their second contracts. At least one is almost certainly going to leave, yet I believe the most likely scenario is both are playing elsewhere in 2025.
For a guy like Warren, he could legitimately end up anywhere. It’s unlikely a team makes him a feature back, but if Warren could play the same role he did in Pittsburgh this past season on a better offense, there’s a mid-RB2 upside here.
KEEP READING: 2024 Dynasty ROOKIE Rankings
Warren just needs to have a similar season in 2024 to secure a fantasy-relevant role. His age isn’t quite a concern, especially because his role isn’t as punishing due to the lack of volume and carries up the middle.
With that said, Warren is already 25 years old (will turn 26 during the season). That’s not old in itself, but it is for a player entering his third season.
Dynasty managers shouldn’t be looking to get rid of Warren purely because he’s older than third-year backs should be, but it is something to be cognizant of.
Overall, I’m a big fan of Warren as a talent and believe he can be an impactful fantasy asset for another five years or so. When you stumble upon a surprise breakout like Warren, there’s reduced risk in just riding it out.
Since Warren didn’t cost anything to acquire, if he ends up fizzling out, you haven’t lost much. Even so, that scenario is unlikely. I would hang onto Warren in dynasty leagues.
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