It appears fantasy football managers are not really giving Miami Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle a pass for his disappointing 2023 campaign. Is Waddle’s upside capped by Tyreek Hill, or should managers be starting him at a discount? What does Waddle’s projection tell us?
Jaylen Waddle’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 15.7
- Receptions: 95
- Receiving Yards: 1,276
- Receiving TDs: 6.7
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Waddle This Year?
When you look at the top WRs by average draft position (ADP), they all have one thing in common: They are their NFL team’s WR1. The first name to appear on that list who is not is Waddle.
With a WR20 ADP, Waddle is one of the most expensive NFL WR2s in fantasy. History tells us that the overwhelming majority of fantasy WR1s are their NFL team’s WR1s. Does that mean we should bypass Waddle? Not exactly.
While we certainly want WR1s, there are plenty of high-end fantasy WR2s who are their NFL team’s WR2. Those wide receivers specifically come from good offenses. The Dolphins are not only a good offense but one with a consolidated target share.
Last season, Waddle saw a 23.4% target share. That was a moderate increase from his 21.6% the year before, a year where averaged 15.3 fantasy points per game (ppg), finishing as the overall WR12. So, what happened that caused Waddle to fall to 14.2 ppg and a WR19 finish?
A few things conspired against Waddle. First, there was his health. Waddle only missed three games last season, but he was banged up in several others. There were three games where Waddle saw a sub-60% snap share. That’s not normal. There were two games in all of 2022 where Waddle played fewer than 70% of the snaps. That’s more of what to expect this year.
Second, Waddle’s efficiency dipped. He went from 18.1 yards per reception to 14.1. That may appear concerning, but Waddle still averaged 2.68 yards per route run, eighth in the league. That’s a very predictive metric and suggests Waddle should perform much better in 2024.
Third, Waddle only scored four touchdowns. He recorded 1,014 receiving yards. Based on that, he should’ve scored at least six times. Had Waddle not experienced bad touchdown luck, he would’ve been at 15 ppg, if not higher.
Given that Waddle’s target share from last season includes three games he either left early or was in and out of, I am confident in projecting him for a 24.5% target share this season.
My projection for Waddle placed him at WR14, but very little separates him from my projected WR10. Of the top 18 wide receivers in my projections, Waddle is the only one who is his NFL team’s WR2. That’s for good reason: He’s a proven talent on an explosive offense that funnels over 50% of its targets to two players.
As for my ranks, Waddle is my WR12, slightly above where I have him projected. A big part of why I am very bullish on Waddle is that I believe he would be going 2-3 spots higher than he is now had he been a little bit healthier and more fortunate last season.
I have Waddle projected for 95 catches for 1,327 yards and seven touchdowns, which comes out to 15.93 ppg. That’s nearly identical to the PFN consensus projections.
Waddle is more than capable of producing high-WR2 and even low-WR1 numbers alongside Hill. While Hill has shown exactly zero signs of slowing down, he did get hurt toward the end of last season, and he’s now over 30 years old. What if Hill misses time again this season? Waddle wouldn’t become Hill — no one is Tyreek Hill — but he would definitely see an increase in volume.
Waddle’s realistic range of outcomes is in the WR10-18 range. If Hill didn’t exist, Waddle would have a top-five upside. So, we have a player very unlikely to fail with the potential to really smash if certain things break right. That’s a guy I want to target in fantasy drafts.
Derek Tate’s Fantasy Insights on Jaylen Waddle
If Tyreek Hill didn’t have a fantasy floor of 119 receptions and 1,700 yards in Miami’s offensive scheme, then I would be much more optimistic about Waddle’s fantasy ceiling in 2024.
Now, does this mean Waddle doesn’t have an intriguing fantasy floor in an offense that led the league in passing last season? No, of course not. Waddle had the “worst” fantasy finish of his young career at WR34 and still finished with 72 receptions for 1,014 yards and four TDs in 2023.
For some additional context, Waddle missed three games last year and produced fairly close to the same fantasy points-per-game production (14.2) we saw from him in full-PPR formats from 2022 (15.2).
Continuing with the context argument, Waddle saw his yards per route run (YPRR) rise from 2.46 to 2.52 last season, which certainly suggests there was no significant drop-off in his play on the field.
In fact, I can comfortably say Waddle’s play didn’t regress last year whatsoever. He logged a lower drop percentage, a higher contested catch rate, and more broken tackles, which is exactly why Miami was still committed to getting him the football in a variety of ways. This came in the form of 15 screen passes and three touches in the running game.
Waddle is still a great WR2 option for your fantasy team this season and has the physical tools to be a legit top-10 fantasy receiver. But don’t be surprised if you continue to get volatile production while Hill continues to dominate the work in the passing game.