The Miami Dolphins offense boasts two of the biggest playmaking weapons on the perimeter, which helps formulate the most explosive wide receiver duo in the NFL. Yet, one of those two receivers is clearly the second option in this passing attack.
What type of fantasy football ceiling does Jaylen Waddle possess heading into the 2024 NFL season?
Should You Select Jaylen Waddle at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 40th Overall (WR19)
- Strong Fantasy Floor: Waddle finished the 2023 season as WR34, despite missing three games. He still managed 72 receptions, 1,014 yards, and four touchdowns, demonstrating a solid fantasy floor in Miami’s high-powered offense.
- Consistent Efficiency: Waddle improved his yards per route run (YPRR) from 2.46 in 2022 to 2.52 in 2023, showing that his on-field performance remains highly efficient. His lower drop percentage, higher contested catch rate, and more broken tackles further highlight his consistent play.
- Limited Red-Zone Usage: Waddle’s fantasy ceiling is capped by his limited red-zone usage compared to Tyreek Hill. In 2023, Hill saw 24 red-zone targets compared to Waddle’s 8, which limits Waddle’s touchdown potential.
- Impact of Tyreek Hill: While Hill’s presence opens up opportunities for Waddle to make explosive plays, it also significantly impacts Waddle’s target share and red-zone opportunities, making Hill the preferred option in key situations.
- ADP Analysis: Waddle is currently being drafted as the WR19 at No. 40 overall, which is a noticeable discount from his ADP of No. 22 overall (WR10) in 2023. Despite the competition in Miami’s offense, Waddle remains a strong WR2 option with the potential to deliver WR1 production if Hill were to miss time.
- Final Verdict: Waddle offers reliable WR2 value with the upside for more in Miami’s elite passing attack. He is a safe pick in the back half of the fourth round, providing stability and the potential for explosive weeks, particularly if Hill’s role changes.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Jaylen Waddle
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
25) Josh Jacobs, RB | Green Bay Packers
26) Rachaad White, RB | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
27) Mike Evans, WR | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
28) Joe Mixon, RB | Houston Texans
29) Davante Adams, WR | Las Vegas Raiders
30) Jaylen Waddle, WR | Miami Dolphins
31) Nico Collins, WR | Houston Texans
32) Sam LaPorta, TE | Detroit Lions
33) Josh Allen, QB | Buffalo Bills
34) Travis Kelce, TE | Kansas City Chiefs
35) James Cook, RB | Buffalo Bills
Jaylen Waddle’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
If Tyreek Hill didn’t have a fantasy floor of 119 receptions and 1,700 yards in Miami’s offensive scheme, then I would be much more optimistic about Waddle’s fantasy ceiling in 2024.
Now, does this mean Waddle doesn’t have an intriguing fantasy floor in an offense that led the league in passing last season? No, of course not. Waddle had the “worst” fantasy finish of his young career at WR34 and still finished with 72 receptions for 1,014 yards and four TDs in 2023.
Tua Tagovailoa with a 💣 to Jaylen Waddle 🔥#FinsUp | #NFLpic.twitter.com/gM6AJPNgoU
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) December 17, 2023
For some additional context, Waddle missed three games last year and produced fairly close to the same fantasy points-per-game production (14.2) we saw from him in full-PPR formats from 2022 (15.2).
Continuing with the context argument, Waddle saw his yards per route run (YPRR) rise from 2.46 to 2.52 last season, which certainly suggests there was no significant drop-off in his play on the field.
In fact, I can comfortably say Waddle’s play didn’t regress last year whatsoever. He logged a lower drop percentage, a higher contested catch rate, and more broken tackles, which is exactly why Miami was still committed to getting him the football in a variety of ways. This came in the form of 15 screen passes and three touches in the running game.
Yet, the biggest detractor to Waddle’s fantasy outlook is painfully obvious. It’s his running mate at wide receiver.
Hill’s healthy target share (33.7%) can be somewhat tolerated by Waddle truthers because his presence on the field certainly opens things up for the latter to make explosive plays.
Unfortunately, the major discrepancy in these two players’ usage in the red zone cannot be positively interpreted. Take a look at this red-zone production from the 2023 NFL season.
- Hill: 24 targets, 15 receptions, 54 yards, 4 touchdowns
- Waddle: 8 targets, 3 receptions, 20 yards, 2 touchdowns
Hill seeing three times as many targets as Waddle in the red zone is wild. Frustratingly, it will continue to cap Waddle’s fantasy ceiling in 2024.
These numbers aren’t a death sentence for Waddle’s fantasy value, considering the two players saw virtually the same amount of red-zone work in 2022. However, the preferred option as a whole continues to be Hill, no matter where they are on the field.
Waddle is still a great WR2 option for your fantasy team this season and has the physical tools to be a legit top-10 fantasy receiver. But don’t be surprised if you continue to get volatile production while Hill continues to dominate the work in the passing game.
Is Waddle a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
If we compare Waddle’s ADP to just one season ago, then he’s going to feel like a discount at No. 40 overall (WR19) off the board in the back half of the fourth round. In 2023, he had an ADP of No. 22 overall (WR10), which firmly put him in the back half of Round 2.
Has that much really changed to Waddle’s situation from last year heading into this season? My answer is no.
Sure, Odell Beckham Jr., Jonnu Smith, and Malik Washington’s additions may give QB Tua Tagovailoa some mildly better ancillary options in this passing attack. Yet, I’m not going to project Waddle losing any significant amount of work to these players in 2024.
Waddle is currently going in the same range as Cooper Kupp, DK Metcalf, and DeVonta Smith, which makes me feel very comfortable adding him as a high-end WR2 in an elite passing attack with the upside of a WR1 if anything were to happen to Hill.