Miami Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle took a surprising step backward last season in terms of production. Still young and talented, is being a perennial fantasy football WR1 in Waddle’s future? Where does his dynasty value stand heading into the 2024 offseason?
Jaylen Waddle’s Dynasty Outlook
After three years in the NFL, it’s hard to pinpoint exactly who Waddle is. In his rookie season, he was essentially a younger version of Jarvis Landry, catching 104 passes for just 1,015 yards.
SPEED KILLS 💨
Tua Tagovailoa with the deep ball to Jaylen Waddle 🐧#FinsUp
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) December 24, 2023
In Waddle’s sophomore season, the Dolphins traded for WR Tyreek Hill. Waddle was relegated to the clear No. 2 option and saw a significant drop in volume. However, he made up for it with a massive spike in efficiency.
Essentially, Waddle couldn’t have been a more different player than he was as a rookie. He went from a check-down specialist averaging 9.8 yards per reception to the most efficient receiver in the league.
Waddle caught 29 fewer passes but amassed 341 more yards, totaling 75 receptions for 1,356 yards. He averaged 18.1 yards per reception and 15.3 fantasy points per game, just 0.1 fewer than his rookie year. That was extremely encouraging, as it seemed Hill’s arrival did not negatively impact Waddle’s ability to produce.
Last season, though, Waddle regressed. There’s no other way to describe it. His target share ticked back up a bit, but he saw fewer downfield targets, resulting in a yards-per-reception average of 14.1, a 4.0 decrease from the previous year.
It’s fair to expect Waddle not to lead the NFL in yards per reception every year. But when a decrease in efficiency comes without any meaningful increase in volume, it’s a problem. Between that, some poor touchdown luck, and a couple of nagging injuries, Waddle’s points-per-game average dipped to 14.2.
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Waddle underwhelmed, but it would be unfair to say he was a bust. The underlying metrics were still good. Waddle averaged 2.68 yards per route run, eighth in the league. He also saw a very high target rate with a pass thrown to him on 27.5% of routes run — 10th in the league.
At 25 years old, Waddle is still young enough for fantasy managers to build their dynasty teams around. He’ll be trapped behind Hill for another few years, but by 2026, he should be the team’s clear WR1.
Waddle’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Waddle land in the dynasty WR landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Katz’s latest rankings, featuring where Waddle lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
Jason Katz’s Top 24 Dynasty WR Rankings
1) Justin Jefferson | MIN
2) Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
3) CeeDee Lamb | DAL
4) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
5) Puka Nacua | LAR
6) Garrett Wilson | NYJ
7) Tyreek Hill | MIA
8) A.J. Brown | PHI
9) Chris Olave | NO
10) Jaylen Waddle | MIA
11) Brandon Aiyuk | SF
12) DK Metcalf | SEA
13) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND
14) DeVonta Smith | PHI
15) Drake London | ATL
16) Jordan Addison | MIN
17) DJ Moore | CHI
18) Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
19) Tank Dell | HOU
20) Nico Collins | HOU
21) Rashee Rice | KC
22) Tee Higgins | CIN
23) Zay Flowers | BAL
24) Deebo Samuel | SF
Should You Trade Waddle in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Waddle? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offers to make in seconds!
After last season, Waddle’s dynasty value took a slight hit but nothing major. He’s still one of the top talents in the league and has proven WR1 upside. If you don’t have Waddle, now would be a good time to see how his manager feels about him. If the Waddle manager is a little frustrated and worried about Hill sticking around for longer than anticipated, perhaps you can pry Waddle away in a deal.
If you do have Waddle, I certainly wouldn’t be looking to move him. Any player is worth trading for the right price, but there’s a difference between being open-minded about potential trades and actively looking for them. I would not advise actively trying to get rid of Waddle.
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Paired with QB Tua Tagovailoa in head coach Mike McDaniel’s WR-friendly scheme, Waddle is a great bounce-back candidate for 2024. If that happens, with Hill another year closer to the end of his career, Waddle’s dynasty value could see a sizable increase.
Unless you’re able to secure a player firmly ahead of him in the rankings, Waddle is best left on your roster if you have him.
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