Miami Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle took a bit of a step back last season. Still a distant second to Tyreek Hill, has Waddle’s value decreased to the point that he’s now underrated in Best Ball drafts? Should fantasy football managers draft the talented playmaker?
Jaylen Waddle’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
I remember just two short years ago when the Dolphins traded for Hill. There was some genuine discourse in the fantasy community as to whether Waddle might actually be the more valuable fantasy asset. Not from me, but it was out there.
Two years later, and there’s not even a shred of doubt as to what the story is. This is not a 1a/1b situation. Hill is the WR1, and Waddle is the WR2.
Now, that doesn’t mean Waddle can’t still be a very valuable asset in fantasy. After all, he averaged 15.3 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall WR12 in 2022. That guy still exists. In fact, last season wasn’t really the down year many think it was.
Waddle may have only averaged 14.2 points per game, but that’s just a 1.1 points-per-game drop. Most notably, he scored four fewer touchdowns than the year prior. Give him just three of those back, and he’s the same guy he was the first two seasons from a 30,000-foot view standpoint.
The bigger question fantasy managers should ask is who Waddle is on a week-to-week basis. In his rookie season, Waddle was essentially a younger version of Jarvis Landry, catching 104 passes for just 1,015 yards. As a sophomore, Waddle couldn’t have been a more different player. Instead of relying on short volume, his game was deep balls and efficiency.
Waddle caught 29 fewer passes but amassed 341 more yards, totaling 75 receptions for 1,356 yards. He averaged 18.1 yards per reception and 15.3 fantasy points per game, just 0.1 fewer than his rookie year.
Last season was definitely a step backward. Waddle’s target share increased, but the decline in deep-ball targets resulted in his yards per reception plummeting 4.0 yards from the previous year.
While Waddle didn’t give fantasy managers what they drafted, he wasn’t exactly a bust. The underlying metrics were still good. Waddle averaged 2.68 yards per route run, eighth in the league. He also saw a very high target rate with a pass thrown to him on 27.5% of routes run — 10th in the league.
Should You Draft Waddle in 2024 Best Ball Leagues?
Another issue for Waddle in the 2023 season was injuries. Waddle has always been a player who gets banged up a bit, but he didn’t miss a game in either of his first two seasons. Last year, not only did he miss three games, but in-game injuries cost him significant snaps in at least three others.
Waddle’s playing style, combined with the type of targets he receives, will continue to leave him open to big hits. It’s something to consider, but less of a concern in Best Ball than in managed leagues.
I find ADP progression and regression very interesting in fantasy football. For some guys, we see one spike year, and all of a sudden that player is being drafted as if that’s the new normal.
Then, we have someone like Waddle, who’s finished as the WR15, WR12, and WR21 in each of his first three seasons, respectively. Clearly a very talented player, it’s hard to envision his 2024 season being worse than last year’s.
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It’s fair to say WR21 is Waddle’s floor…and that’s where he’s being drafted.
It’s still very, very early. ADPs can and will shift as the impacts of free agency, the draft, and general offseason news are felt. However, if Waddle is going to remain priced this low, suffice it to say I will be rostering a lot of Waddle this season.