Green Bay Packers WR Jayden Reed returned a significant profit last season for fantasy football managers who were willing to bet on the development of this offense. Entering 2024, most want a piece of Green Bay’s offense, which is driving the price up on draft day. Is Reed now a good buy at his current ADP?
Jayden Reed’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 204 (144 non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 113
- Rushing TDs: 2
- Receptions: 61
- Receiving Yards: 752
- Receiving TDs: 8
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Reed This Year?
Now that we think the Packers have their franchise QB in place, who’s going to be the featured option?
Jayden Reed was HYPER Efficient as a Rookie!🤯
🟢#8 Fantasy Points Per Route Run
🟢#5 Fantasy Points Per Target+Top 12 in Route Win Rate vs Man🔥
With the Packers offense set to improve, are you drafting him at his WR34 price tag?📢#PlayerProfilerStats pic.twitter.com/CSb7HoAHPv
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) July 11, 2024
Entering last season, we assumed that Christian Watson would be drafted as a WR2 in all formats. After an impressive rookie season, Watson struggled mightily to open 2023 (WR66 through 10 weeks, ranking behind Robert Woods and Wan’Dale Robinson, among others). Although he came on during his final three games with four touchdowns, it was simply too late for his fantasy managers.
- 2022 Watson: 33.4% over expectation, 2.3 yards/route, 10.6% of targets came in RZ
- 2023 Reed: 25.2% over expectation, 2.1 yards/route, 9.6% of targets came in RZ
There is certainly some scar tissue for fantasy managers in assuming they know who is leading this upward-trending Packers passing game (Reed costs a sixth-round pick this season, just like Watson did last year). However, I’d encourage you to take a step back and evaluate this situation differently.
Reed doesn’t hold nearly the health concerns of Watson, giving his profile more stability from the jump. In addition to staying on the field, his skill set and offensive insolation are better bets than where Watson stood 12 months ago.
First of all, Reed’s aDOT (average depth of target) was 28% lower than what Watson gave us, a floor elevator and a much better bet for consistency when it comes to earning targets. It’s hard to envision a world in which he disappears as Watson (his first game with more than three catches came on Thanksgiving) did in 2023.
More important than the “how” Reed was getting the ball is the “who.” Watson was able to access his high ceiling with Aaron Rodgers, and we underestimated the risk of a change. Reed not only has consistency under center, but he also gets the benefit of developing alongside a franchise QB as opposed to capitalizing on the final days of an all-time great.
I mentioned Watson finding his game a little bit after Week 10 before injuries cost him the final month, but him doing so didn’t hurt Reed. You could argue that with Watson demanding attention down the field, the underneath routes gained value.
How good was Reed over that stretch? Here are the top 10 receivers in yards per route run over that stretch who saw at least as many opportunities as Green Bay’s WR1.
- Nico Collins: 3.72
- Tyreek Hill: 3.71
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: 2.72
- CeeDee Lamb: 2.70
- Puka Nacua: 2.69
- Michael Pittman Jr.: 2.54
- Rashee Rice: 2.48
- Deebo Samuel Sr.: 2.45
- Keenan Allen: 2.44
- Jayden Reed: 2.43
Seven of those names are being drafted among the first 24 receivers, with six of them being among the first 24 picks overall.
I like Reed more than most, and even I don’t think he’ll offer the consistency of those elite names (there are currently four Packers receivers being drafted in the first 10 rounds). But the fact that he proved his ability to be efficient at a high level with Jordan Love earns him the title of Green Bay’s WR1 for me without much hesitation.
Reed is being drafted in the same range as the aforementioned Allen, and I’d take that bet every day. Instead of changing franchises and counting on a rookie QB, Reed gets stability across the board. Many of the receivers in this tier (Terry McLaurin, Chris Godwin, and Calvin Ridley) have far more questions under center than him.
This isn’t Watson 2.0. This is a more stable profile that gets the benefit of facing mainly vulnerable defenses from Thanksgiving through the end of the fantasy season.
- Week 13 vs. Miami
- Week 14 at Detroit
- Week 15 at Seattle
- Week 16 vs. New Orleans
- Week 17 at Minnesota
The seventh round (his ADP has dipped by nearly a full round over the past month) has been a receiver spot for me in the majority of my drafts, and when I elect to go that direction, no player is getting my click more often than Reed.