There’s always something happening in the NFL. Even without actual games, fantasy football values are constantly shifting.
Green Bay Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed emerged as the team’s top option over the second half of his rookie season. Where does his dynasty value stand heading into the 2024 offseason?
Jayden Reed’s Dynasty Outlook
One of the best arguments in favor of dynasty leagues is you’ll never find yourself in the situation I did in my redraft leagues in 2023. I drafted Reed quite literally in every single league.
#Packers QB Jordan Love throws a DART to Jayden Reed 🎯
Masterful job by the rookie to get both feet in 🔥#GoPackGo
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) December 17, 2023
As a nonbeliever in Romeo Doubs and not fully bought in on Christian Watson, I thought Reed had a great chance to emerge as the best receiver on the Packers by mid-season.
Regrettably, I was forced to drop Reed in every league due to his erratic usage and various team needs I had at the time. I was very quickly kicking myself because Reed was my guy!
You’ve probably figured out where this is going on Reed. So, let’s get there.
Reed is really good at football. Despite spending the first half of the season with a sub-60% snap share and never really being a full-time player, Reed averaged 13.6 fantasy points per game, finishing as the WR26.
Of course, I’m not kicking myself for dropping 13.6 fantasy ppg (although that’s less than ideal on its own). I’m kicking myself because of when I dropped Reed.
Right around Week 10 is when Reed took off. From Weeks 10-18, he averaged a shocking 17.4 fantasy points per game — the threshold for WR1 production is roughly 16. Thus, Reed was an every-week must-start WR1 over the second half of the 2023 season.
He may have only commanded a 17.6% target share, but Reed’s 24.4% targets per route run rate was 26th in the league. That’s quite impressive for a rookie. In his sophomore season, Reed should see a more consistent role.
MORE: Dynasty Rookie Draft Strategies
He’s very clearly the most talented receiver on the team. While I don’t expect the Packers to move him out of the slot, where he ran 67% of his routes, I do expect Reed to play much more than just 57% of the snaps.
Another thing that adds to Reed’s value is his rushing. It’s not a ton, but 11 carries for 119 yards and two touchdowns from a wide receiver is impactful. That’s an extra 1.4 fantasy ppg for a full season. Green Bay was going out of their way to get the ball in Reed’s hands.
Jason Katz’s Top 30 Dynasty WR Rankings
1) Justin Jefferson | MIN
2) Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
3) CeeDee Lamb | DAL
4) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
5) Puka Nacua | LAR
6) Garrett Wilson | NYJ
7) Tyreek Hill | MIA
8) A.J. Brown | PHI
9) Chris Olave | NO
10) Jaylen Waddle | MIA
11) Brandon Aiyuk | SF
12) DK Metcalf | SEA
13) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND
14) DeVonta Smith | PHI
15) Drake London | ATL
16) Jordan Addison | MIN
17) DJ Moore | CHI
18) Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
19) Tank Dell | HOU
20) Nico Collins | HOU
21) Rashee Rice | KC
22) Tee Higgins | CIN
23) Zay Flowers | BAL
24) Deebo Samuel | SF
25) Jayden Reed | GB
26) Amari Cooper | CLE
27) Mike Evans | TB
28) Davante Adams | LV
29) Christian Kirk | JAX
30) Cooper Kupp | LAR
Should You Trade Reed in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Reed? Our PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trades to make in seconds!
While any player is worth trading for the right price, you shouldn’t be looking to get rid of Reed. He’s 24 years old, which is a bit old for a sophomore, but still quite young overall. He’s additionally tethered to a young, ascending quarterback in Jordan Love.
The Packers do have a bit of a logjam at wide receiver, but they don’t have a clear alpha. I have every confidence Reed can be that guy as early as 2024. We’re betting on talent here.
MORE: Dynasty Rookie Rankings 2024
If I were in charge of Green Bay, it would be Reed and Dontayvion Wicks in two-receiver sets with Doubs pushing Reed to the slot in three-receiver sets. Watson would be a situational deep threat and red-zone target, limited to around 30% of the snaps.
Will the Packers do that? Probably not. But Reed is undoubtedly going to remain a focal point of the offense for the next several years. With high-WR2 upside, Reed is someone you want to keep on your dynasty roster.
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