We’re diving into the fantasy football outlooks for Jayden Reed and Christian Watson for Week 10.
Who is the better Green Bay Packers receiver to roll with against the Steelers on Sunday?
Should You Start Jayden Reed or Christian Watson This Week?
The Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer says that Reed is the player to start. His projected 7.5 points include 3.3 receptions, 46.4 yards, and 0.2 TDs. That doesn’t seem like a big stat line, but it outperforms the consensus projection for Watson (7.4 points).
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However, when you isolate my rankings, I see Watson outperforming Reed. Both players are up and down, and this matchup could go a few ways. That said, if both players hit, Watson’s hit will be significantly higher.
Watson also plays much more, logging approximately 80% of snaps vs. Reed’s sub-50% snap share in two of the first three weeks coming out of Green Bay’s bye.
While Watson has not had a big blowup week yet, it’s coming. He’s getting open and being targeted downfield. The issue has been he and Jordan Love frequently missing big completions by a small margin. Hopefully, this is the week where the pendulum swings the other way.
Jayden Reed’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
Reed has been a challenging player to start in fantasy football.
Not that he’s been completely unproductive, but he also doesn’t have a consistent role in this Packers offense. With Reed only playing in three-WR sets, his overall volume and consistency are entirely tied to a specific game plan.
With how the Packers’ wideout usage has broken down following their Week 6 bye, don’t expect a ton of help from Reed. He’s logged 48%, 78%, and 39% of the snaps in the last three games.
The high end of that range was tied to the Packers throwing 41 times, but Love’s pass attempts were at a modest 31 and 26 in the other two games. Will Green Bay go back to deploying a pass-heavy attack or focus on the run in Week 10?
The matchup against the Steelers is a mediocre one for WRs, as they’ve allowed the 15th-most fantasy points to WRs in the last four weeks. Patrick Peterson has been the primary slot CB and is the highest-rated starting CB for Pittsburgh. He allows modest averages of three catches and 55 yards on five targets per game, including inside and outside snaps.
Reed has upside, but he’s a big risk weekly. With no top-12 finishes, two top-24 finishes, and four total top-36 finishes, Reed has potential paired with a low, low floor. Reed is a decent flex option with some upside. Just don’t expect an elite performance from the rookie WR.
Christian Watson’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
Watson has been a massive fantasy bust this year. After missing three weeks and playing on a part-time basis in a fourth, he’s been nearly at a full workload the last four games. Over that span, his production has been disappointing and rendered him a hard-to-start player for fantasy purposes.
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The targets have not been consistent, but Watson has been a focal point since his return. He’s seen seven or more targets in two of the four games he’s logged what would be considered a starter’s snap count.
The Packers deployed a run-centric approach in Week 9, and the same might apply vs. the Steelers. However, Green Bay needs to get the Love/Watson combination going, which the Packers can naturally only do by affording them opportunities.
Watson likely sees both Peterson and Joey Porter Jr. in coverage this week. Porter has been fantastic, allowing just one catch on five targets last week. Peterson kicks inside in nickel situations but is on the outside in Pittsburgh’s base formations, meaning he’ll spend time on both Watson and Reed.
The faulty Love-Watson connection represents Watson’s biggest hurdle. Watson has a 65% catchable-target percentage, and physically, he compares favorably in certain aspects with the much more accomplished DK Metcalf.
Notably, both players have struggled with catching downfield passes consistently this season. Yet, Metcalf is not considered a bench candidate due to his overall body of work.
Watson has WR2 upside at minimum, and despite his struggles this season, he only needs one play to hit.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!