To call it historic might be putting it lightly. The Washington Commanders have had a miraculous turnaround in just one season, going from a four-win team to an NFC Championship Game appearance. At the center of their success has been one man: rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels.
With the improbable, and at times unbelievable, success that Daniels and the franchise have enjoyed this season, legacy and all-time conversations are already running rampant. While there is no official verdict, many are starting to believe that we may be watching the greatest NFL rookie quarterback season of all time.
Jayden Daniels: Best Rookie QB in NFL History?
There is enough evidence to support the claim. From his dual threat in the passing and running games to the incredible poise he’s shown late in games, Daniels has been sensational to watch.
Yet, his heroics translating to the playoffs have led conversations to reach a fever pitch. In the Divisional Round, Daniels was facing off against the No. 1 seed in the conference and Super Bowl favorites, the Detroit Lions.
Rather than wilt under pressure, the rookie led a supercharged offense, securing multiple third and fourth downs to keep them in the game, and eventually won 45-31. But, even before the final buzzer went off, Jim Rome was ready to crown Daniels.
“I don’t even care how this game ends. Jayden Daniels is the best rookie quarterback I have ever see. Tell me one who’s better. I’ll wait.”
I don’t even care how this game ends. Jayden Daniels is the best rookie quarterback I have ever see. Tell me one who’s better. I’ll wait.
— Jim Rome (@jimrome) January 19, 2025
Fellow NFL analyst Colin Cowherd agreed, saying that Daniels is “easily” the best rookie quarterback in NFL history.
“Jayden Daniels is easily the best rookie QB ever”@colincowherd on the Commanders QB vs Lions pic.twitter.com/ObN7cGBdUM
— The Volume (@TheVolumeSports) January 19, 2025
Even though it seems like a bold proclamation at face value, it isn’t without merit. During the regular season, Daniels totaled over 4,000 yards between his passing and rushing games. He added 31 total touchdowns against just nine interceptions and led Washington on five game-winning drives.
Moreover, for a franchise that did not make any major roster changes over the offseason, Daniels almost singlehandedly turned them from a four-win team to a Conference Championship attendee.
For those willing to debate, names like C.J. Stroud, Ben Roethlisberger, and others might stand out. But, either they didn’t find the team success that Daniels did, or it wasn’t a one-man show quite like the Commanders.
On the season, Washington’s defense ranked 17th in the league, according to PFN’s Defense+ metric. In contrast — thanks to Daniels — its offense was the sixth-best, according to PFN’s Offense+ metric.
He led the way for the Commanders as the highest-rated rookie in the league this season and ninth overall in PFN’s QB+ metric. When accounting for the playoffs, that number jumps up to fifth in the NFL.
During the two postseason games, both on the road against a higher seed, Daniels has added 567 passing yards, along with 87 rushing yards, while scoring four touchdowns without any turnovers. He holds a passer rating of 116.2 and has been the biggest reason for Washington’s success.
With one more win, Daniels can become the first rookie quarterback to start in the Super Bowl.
During this playoff run, Daniels became the first rookie QB in NFL history to record 275 passing yards and 50 rushing yards in a playoff win, the first rookie to beat a No. 1 seed since Joe Flacco in 2008, and the third rookie QB to win two road playoff games (joining Flacco and Mark Sanchez).
It might be too early for some, but it isn’t without merit that Daniels might very well end up finishing this season as the single-best rookie QB in NFL history.
Eagles vs. Commanders Game Preview
- Location: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
- Time: 3 p.m. ET
- Date: Jan. 26, Sunday
- Channel: Fox/Fox Deportes
Including the playoffs, Daniels ranks first in EPA per dropback when blitzed (0.36). While still effective against standard pass rushes, his EPA per dropback drops to 0.10 (13th) in those situations.
Now, Daniels will face an Eagles defense that blitzes at the second-lowest rate of any team this season, including playoffs. During their two regular-season matchups, Daniels punished the Eagles’ blitz, producing an incredible 1.03 EPA (Expected Points Added) per dropback and 14.5 yards per attempt when blitzed.
Philadelphia only blitzed him on 14 of his 84 dropbacks (17%) in those games. Against their non-blitz pass rush, Daniels was far less effective, averaging a modest -0.02 EPA per dropback.
Saquon Barkley had significant success against Washington. In their two matchups, Barkley rushed for 451 yards and four touchdowns, averaging an impressive 5.4 yards per carry.
However, the Commanders found a way to limit Barkley in Week 16 after Jalen Hurts left the game in the first quarter, forcing Kenny Pickett to step in. Over the final three quarters, Barkley managed just 41 rushing yards on 22 attempts. Before Hurts’ injury, Barkley had been averaging over 7.7 yards per carry against Washington.
If Hurts is limited by his left leg injury, the Commanders could focus on loading up against Barkley to contain the Eagles’ rushing attack. By committing additional resources to stop Barkley, they might aim to force Hurts to rely more on his passing game, testing his mobility and effectiveness with the injury.
The Eagles have leaned heavily on Barkley and Hurts’ rushing abilities to generate offense in the playoffs. Through two games, 70.9% of their total yards have come on the ground.
The Commanders will play in the NFC Championship Game for the first time since 1991. Only the Browns, who last appeared in a Conference Championship Game in 1989, endured a longer drought.
Washington went 4-13 (.235) last year, marking the fourth-worst win percentage in the season prior to making a Conference Championship appearance, trailing only the 2017 Jaguars (0.188), 2006 Saints (0.188), and 1967 Oilers (0.214).
The Eagles lost two games in September and have lost one game since — at Washington in Week 16 after Hurts exited early with a concussion. In that loss, Philadelphia became the first team to score 21 points in the first quarter in a losing effort since the 2019 Texans (during the Divisional Round on the road against the Chiefs).
PFN’s Playoff Predictor gives the Eagles a 61.8% chance of winning this game while the Commanders have 38.2% odds.
